Which Teams Can Prevent Brady and the Bucs from Going Back-to-Back?
We’re 13 weeks into the regular season, and the NFL has yet to see a team emerge as a clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. The path to being crowned NFL champion is as wide open as ever, and this year’s playoff race is shaping up to be full of surprises.
According to many sportsbooks, the reigning champion Buccaneers are the favorite to win it all once again. It makes sense that when the NFL is lacking a true frontrunner, betting on Tom Brady becomes the default #1 option.
So what’s it going to take for another team to steal the “reigning champs” title from Brady and the Bucs in 2022?
First of all, your offense will need to score a lot of points.
The Bucs lead the league with 31.4 points scored per game on average, and even in their three losses they’ve averaged a respectable 23.3 points. To be safe, let’s say an opposing team would need to score at least 24 points to keep pace with the Tampa Bay offense.
If we filter down to the teams whose offenses are averaging 24+ points per game, we’re left with 13:
DAL, ARI, IND, BUF, LAR, CIN, NE, LAC, PHI, MIN, TEN, KC, SF
However, simply having a good enough offense won’t be enough to unseat Brady from his throne. Your defense will also need to find a way to slow him down.
It’s a common narrative that the best way to beat Brady (or any elite QB for that matter) is to get after him with a devastating pass rush. To slim down our list of teams even further, let’s eliminate anyone ranking in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate:
DAL, ARI, BUF, CIN, NE, LAC, MIN, KC
Also, because Brady’s so good against the blitz, let’s make sure these teams aren’t overly reliant on sending extra rushers to generate this pressure. If we remove any teams that rank in the top half of the league in blitz rate, we’re left with just four teams:
- Dallas Cowboys
- Buffalo Bills
- Cincinnati Bengals
- New England Patriots
The list of teams with an offense that can keep pace with Brady while also boasting a pass rush capable of slowing him down is relatively short.
It’s not easy to build a roster that’s balanced enough to keep pace with the Bucs on both sides of the ball, and it‘s unsurprising that all four of these teams are considered playoff-caliber.
Now, let us take a deeper look at each of these teams, see how they stack up against the Bucs, and find out what it would take for them to claim a title of their own.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are the most surprising team on this list, but their play in 2021 has been impressive nonetheless. They’re the only team here who’s not viewed as a lock to make the playoffs (currently the #6 seed in the AFC), and their chances of making it all the way to the Super Bowl for a potential matchup with the Bucs are certainly slim.
However, from a matchup perspective, Cincinnati has what it takes to keep up with anyone this year. Their offense has already posted two 40+ point games this year, and those performances came against the Steelers and the Ravens — two division rivals with playoff aspirations of their own.
This offense has been one of the more impressive groups in the league, and the young group of playmakers surrounding 2nd year quarterback Joe Burrow can put up points against anyone in a hurry.
While these playmakers are capable of impressing with the ball in their hands, they’re also a very inexperienced bunch. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the anchors of this impressive Bengals’ passing attack, and all three are in either their first or second year in the league. Their talent is undeniable, but a lack of NFL experience has led to some inconsistency as well.
While this group is scoring at the 7th highest rate in the league (27.6 points per game), they’re also turning the ball over at an above-average rate. This offense already has 19 turnovers in just 12 games, and it’s hard not to identify inexperience as a major culprit here.
While Burrow and the offense are busy garnering most of the headlines in Cincinnati, it’s actually been the defense who’s been the more impressive unit this year.
After being one of the worst groups in the league in 2020, the Bengals’ defense has drastically stepped up their play in 2021.
Their run defense in particular has been impressive, as they’re 1 of just 6 teams allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. This newfound dominance has largely been fueled by some new faces along the defensive front, and this same group has proven just as capable of causing mayhem in the passing game as well. Despite their low blitz rate, the Bengals’ defense is tied for 4th in the league in sacks (32) largely due to impressive play from their pass rushers.
Cincinnati has the manpower necessary to keep up with just about anyone on both sides of the ball, but losses against the Jets and the Bears raise questions about the legitimacy of this team in the playoffs. They’re undeniably talented, and despite what the data says, it’s hard to envision them actually taking down Brady and the defending champs.
The core of this team is still very young, and it feels as if they’re at least one year away from truly being viewed as a championship contender.
New England Patriots
Oh boy, wouldn’t this be fun?
After hitting a home run in the 2021 offseason, New England has officially exited the post-Tom Brady slump.
Like Cincinnati, this matchup would require a trip to the Super Bowl for the Pats, but the odds of New England making it there seem substantially higher. The Patriots currently possess the #1 seed in the AFC, they’re on a 7 game winning streak, and there might not be a team in the NFL playing better football right now.
Headlines in New England have largely surrounded rookie quarterback Mac Jones this year, but the area where this team is really shining is on the other side of the ball. Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind who’s coached numerous elite defensive units over the years, and this year’s Patriots squad may be one of his best.
On the season, New England is holding their opponents to a ridiculous 15.4 points per game (the top mark in the league), and they’ve already shown they’re capable of keeping Brady and the Buccaneers’ offense in check. When the two squads met back in week 4, Belichick’s defense stymied Brady for most of the game and held the Bucs to just 19 points.
There aren’t many teams who can say they’re capable of slowing Brady down consistently, but if there’s one squad who can do it, it’s probably Brady’s former team.
While the Patriots’ defense has been undeniably elite this year, the Pats may run into some trouble on the other side of the ball in this potential matchup.
The New England offense is an above-average group, but calling them elite would certainly be a stretch. Their strength on that side of the ball is their powerful run game, but in a matchup with the Bucs they’d be squaring off with the second-0best run defense in the league.
Running the ball against Vita Vea and the Tampa Bay front 7 is a daunting task, and the Patriots would likely have to rely heavily on Mac Jones and the passing game to score points in this matchup.
As great as Jones has been this year, it’s important to remember he’s still a rookie. No team in NFL history has made it to the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback, let alone won the game. The way the Patriots are playing right now means they’ve got as good a shot at anyone at bucking this trend, but the odds are certainly stacked against them.
If the Patriots can beat those odds and the Bucs wind up repeating as NFC champs, watching Bill Belichick try to even the score with Brady when the stakes are highest would make for some very entertaining football.
Buffalo Bills
While New England may not match up well offensively against Tampa Bay, their AFC East counterpart certainly does.
Josh Allen and the Bills offense currently rank 5th in points scored per game (28.0), and their high-octane passing attack should be more than capable of keeping pace in a potential shootout with the Bucs. Tampa Bay’s defense is solid overall, but if there’s one area where there’s a chink in their armor, it’s defending the pass.
The Buccaneers’ secondary is arguably the weakest unit on their team, and they could have a hard time dealing with Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the rest of the Bills’ passing attack. The Bills’ passing offense is talented enough to carry Buffalo to the Super Bowl, and if they do, they could be tasked with keeping pace with a familiar foe.
Brady’s squared off with the Bills numerous times over his long career, and he possesses an almost unbelievable 32–3 career record against them. Given his impressive record in this matchup and the overall talent on the Buccaneers’ roster, the Bills would need more than just their passing offense to show up in this one.
Defensively, Buffalo has as good a shot as anyone at slowing down the Tampa Bay offense. While Brady currently leads the league in passing yards (yes, the 44-year-old Brady does in fact lead the league in passing yards), the Bills’ passing defense has been a lockdown unit all season long. They’re best in the league at slowing down their opponents through the air (165.3 pass yards allowed per game), and they only trail New England when it comes to points allowed (16.3).
After playing in the same division as Brady for numerous years, the Bills know what they’re getting when they square off with the GOAT.
Watching the strength-on-strength matchup of the Bills’ top-ranked passing defense try to slow down Brady once again would be a fun site to see, and we’re getting a sneak peak this weekend with Buffalo heading down to Tampa for an exciting week 14 matchup between these two teams.
Dallas Cowboys
Simply because they reside in the NFC, this is the matchup we’re most likely to witness in the postseason.
Dallas currently sits at the #4 seed in the NFC, and they have a 97% chance of making the playoffs according to 538’s projection model. This means a potential Cowboys/Bucs postseason matchup is very much in the realm of possibility, and given the electrifying performance these two put on back in week one, a rematch would undoubtedly be filled with excitement.
That week one matchup was all about offense in a game where the Bucs emerged victorious in a 31–29 shootout. Neither teams’ offense has slowed down since, as Tampa Bay boasts the highest-scoring offense this season (31.4 ppg), and Dallas sits right behind them at #2 (29.4 ppg).
Both offenses are well balanced and capable of scoring points in a multitude of ways which makes them extremely tough to stop. Each team houses a former top 5 draft pick at running back (Ezekiel Elliot and Leonard Fournette), but it’s through the air where each of these teams have really been dangerous.
Both Brady and Dak Prescott rank inside the top 5 in yards per game through the air, and each of them have a small army’s worth of playmakers they can throw the ball to. Dallas and Tampa Bay are home to arguably the two best groups of skill position players in the league, and it would be interesting to see if either defense can do enough to slow down their opposition.
Neither team possesses an elite scoring defense as both the Cowboys (22.3 ppg) and the Bucs (22.5 ppg) rank middle of the pack in that area. However, they’ve both shined this year in their ability to generate turnovers. Tampa Bay and Dallas rank 4th and 5th respectively in takeaways on the year, and with the dominant offenses these teams possess, one or two key takeaways could make all the difference in this potential matchup.
Cowboys’ cornerback Trevon Diggs leads the NFL with 9 interceptions this year, and he’s already picked off Brady once. Though his interception wasn’t enough for a Cowboy’s victory back in week one, if he can snag another one in the postseason, he may be able to prevent Brady from making his 11th Super Bowl appearance.
