Which NFL Teams Have Leveled Up This Season?
Every year a few NFL teams come out of nowhere and shatter their pre-season expectations.
Some teams emerge from the bottom of the NFL barrel and evolve into playoff contenders. Others go from being viewed merely as “good” before making the leap into the NFL’s tier of elite teams.
Sometimes a hot start can trick us into thinking a team has made the leap prematurely, but there are always a few teams whose breakouts are sustainable.
In this article, I’ve highlighted two teams — one from each conference — who appear to have leveled up in 2021, and I’ll discuss why their improved play is here to stay.
Cincinnati Bengals
It’s not often a team picking in the top 5 of the NFL draft makes the playoffs the very next season.
However, if the NFL season ended today, the Bengals would be sitting at the #5 seed in the AFC, and this year’s 5th overall pick — LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase — would be a large reason for the rapid turnaround.
Coming into 2021, there were tons of questions surrounding the Bengals.
Would Joe Burrow be healthy enough to get the offense on track?
Can the offensive line do enough to keep Burrow healthy?
Even if everything goes right offensively, would the defense be able to stop anyone?
Six games into the season, the Bengals appear to have plugged a few of their holes and silenced many of their critics.
Burrow looks healthy, and his connection with Chase looks bound to be just as special in the NFL as it was when the two played together in college.
As a rookie, Chase is already 4th in the NFL with 553 receiving yards and he’s found the end zone 5 times as well. He’s been a dominant force on the outside, and his presence has unlocked the downfield passing game Bengals’ Head Coach Zac Taylor wants to be a major part of this offense.
While the LSU reunion has been the cause of many highlights coming out of Cincinnati, the defense has been this team’s most impressive unit.
Through 6 games, the Bengals are allowing the 5th fewest points to opposing offenses, and the way they’re shutting opponents down looks sustainable.
They’re allowing the 2nd fewest yards per play, and opposing offenses are moving the chains at the 5th lowest rate in the league. Simply put, teams haven’t been able to move the ball consistently against this Bengals defense.
They’ve been middle of the pack in the turnover department, but the fact that they’re playing fantastic defense without heavily relying on takeaways bodes well for their chances of sustained success. Turnovers come and go in bunches, but the ability to line up across from your opponent and beat them snap after snap is a trait that has staying power.
One of the major causes for the defensive turnaround has been a number of new faces in their starting lineup.
Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton, and Eli Apple are currently serving as the Bengals’ top three corners — all of whom were free agent signings this past offseason. Add in signings for Larry Ogunjobi and Trey Hendrickson, and a trade for B.J. Hill, and the defensive front has been beefed up as well. Given the attention dedicated to this side of the ball in the offseason, it’s no surprise this group has stepped up their play.
An influx of defensive talent has allowed the Bengals have to play solid football without relying on groundbreaking schemes to put pressure on opposing offenses. They’re blitzing opposing quarterbacks at the 7th lowest rate in the league (just 20.2% of dropbacks), and with more men playing coverage, the new-look defensive backfield has been able to keep everything in front of them as evidenced by the 5th lowest average depth of target against them (7.1 air yards per attempt).
Teams aren’t even bothering testing this secondary deep, and the front four is generating enough pressure on their own to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable for four consecutive quarters.
This defense hasn’t had many tough tests to start this season, but they’ll face their toughest one yet when they travel to Baltimore on Sunday. Trying to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense is no easy task, and the matchup between these division rivals will serve as a great litmus test for the Cincinnati defense.
There are a lot of games left on the NFL schedule, but early signs indicate Cincinnati is a team that’s leveled up in 2021. They might not be an elite team quite yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they wind up playing a road game when Wild Card Weekend rolls around.
Arizona Cardinals
Coming into the season, consensus said the Cardinals were a good team, but not quite good enough to compete with the top dogs in the NFC West.
Six weeks into the season, Arizona is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, and they look capable of competing with just about anyone.
This team has stepped up their game in multiple areas, but their drastic improvement on defense has been one of the bigger surprises of the 2021 season.
Last year, Arizona allowed 22.9 points per game to opposing offenses. This year, that number is all the way down to 18.2 — the second best mark in the league.
One of the driving forces behind the improvement has been an improved ability to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.
In 2020, the Cardinals had to manufacture pressure schematically as they blitzed opposing quarterbacks on 39.4% of their drop backs (the 4th highest rate in the league). This year, that number’s all the way down to 29.9%, but their pressure rate (which accounts for hurries, knockdowns, and sacks) has increased marginally from 25.9% to 26.9%.
A key reason they’ve been able to generate this pressure organically has been improved play from their defensive front.
The decision to double down on the strategy of “acquire the best player on the Texans” has paid off once again as JJ Watt has been a dominant force on this defense.
Arizona already had a dominant edge player in Chandler Jones, but adding Watt into the mix has turned this defensive front into a nightmare for opposing offenses. The pressure these two are creating has been a disruptive force that’s generated positive ripple effects across the rest of the defense.
While the defensive turnaround has been impressive, the straw that stirs the drink for this Cardinals team is Kyler Murray and the offense.
Murray has been an MVP frontrunner so far this season, and the Cardinals offense is averaging a whopping 32.3 points per game — up a full touchdown from their 25.6 average in 2020.
A large part of this improvement has been Murray’s individual growth, but the weapons surrounding him have been improved as well.
Last year, DeAndre Hopkins was a target monster for the Cardinals, and the Arizona passing attack revolved heavily around his stellar play. He racked up a 29.4% target share, and at times it appeared Murray locked in on his favorite target a little too much, causing the offense to become a bit one-dimensional.
In Murray’s defense, the strategy of “chuck it up to Hopkins and hope for the best” has garnered positive results in the past:
However, despite having arguably the best receiver in the game on their roster, the Cardinals’ front office decided their receiver room still needed some work.
Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid scheme is heavily reliant on receivers winning their 1 on 1 matchups, and he loves having multiple receivers on the field at once. To cater to Kingsbury’s preferences, the Cardinals’ front office brought in AJ Green this offseason to operate as the #2 guy alongside Hopkins.
Green’s no longer playing at the Pro Bowl level we’ve seen from him in the past, but he’s second on the team in targets and he’s consistently been a mismatch for opposing team’s #2 corners. Throw in improved play from Christian Kirk and flashes of brilliance from rookie receiver Rondale Moore, and Kingsbury now has the personnel in place to run the style of offense he wants to run.
With an improved receiver room, the Cardinals are now running 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TEs, 4 WRs) at the highest rate in the league. The additional threats in the passing game have allowed Murray to shred undermanned secondaries and he’s been spreading the ball around beautifully amongst all of his targets.
With Murray’s willingness to spread the ball around, Hopkins’ target share has shrunk down to 20.5%. Defenses can no longer focus all their attention on one guy, and the balanced attack has occasionally led to breakdowns in the defense like this:
Hopkins getting this wide open isn’t something the Cardinals can bank on moving forward, but the fact that it happened even once says volumes about how frustrating it is trying to account for all the weapons in the Arizona passing game.
This is one of the best offenses in football, and they’re beating defenses with a new-school approach that seems to have their opponents playing back on their heels.
Arizona already has some impressive wins on their resume as they’ve beaten the Titans, Rams, and Browns — all teams with playoff aspirations — by multiple touchdowns each.
They’re getting elite play out of both their offense and defense, and even if one side of the ball has an off game, the other side is more than capable of picking up some slack.
Arizona likely won’t finish the season without a tally in the loss column, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them finish the season atop the NFC standings.
