NFL Division Winners: NFC Predictions
In part one of this two part series I went through my predictions for the AFC. As promised, here’s part two where I break down the divisions in the NFC and predict a winner.
Note: I included odds from FanDuel Sportsbook strictly to serve as a measuring stick. My picks in this article are not taking odds into account and are based solely on my opinions.
NFC East
Cowboys +110, Football Team +260, Giants +400, Eagles +550
Let’s start with a division that was so bad last year, that not a have a single team posted a record of .500 or better.
In 2020, the Washington Football Team somehow managed to win the NFC East with a 7–9 record. They accomplished this feat largely due to a dominant defense, and this unit has the chance to be one of the best in the league again in 2021. However as good as the defense was, abysmal quarterback play on the other side of the ball meant the Football Team’s offense was one of the worst in the league. In theory, they upgraded on offense by bringing in journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick to serve as the team’s quarterback.
I have my doubts about Fitzpatrick’s ability to lead a team for an entire season. He’s the definition of a gunslinger and though his play style can lead to greatness at times, it can also be the sole reason his team loses. I think he’ll help their offense take a small step forward, but it’s tough to pick a team under his lead as a division champ.
While Washington was elite on defense and awful on offense last year, Dallas was the complete opposite. The Cowboys housed one of the league’s best offenses until Dak Prescott injured his ankle in week 5 and missed the remainder of the season.
In the 5 games Prescott played, the Cowboys averaged 32.6 points per game — a mark that would have been best in the league if it lasted all season. Entering 2021, all signs point to Prescott being back to full health and ready to light up scoreboards once again.
Despite their outrageous offensive production in those first five games, the Cowboys were only able to come away with two victories because their defense allowed a whopping 36.0 points on average during that stretchs. The front office acknowledged this weakness in the offseason by firing their Defensive Coordinator and proceeding to spend their first 6 picks in the draft on defensive players. These moves may be great for the team long term, but I need to see some signs of life from this unit before I pick the Cowboys to win the division.
When choosing who will win the NFC East, most people are picking Dallas for their offense or Washington for the defense. In my opinion they’re both too one-sided to be trusted. It feels crazy to say it, but I think the New York Giants win the NFC East this year.
Were it not for an all-time tank job by the Eagles in week 17, it would have been the Giants winning the division in 2020. New York had an offense that was even worse than Washington’s last year, but they made major improvements on that side of the ball that should produce positive results.
One of the Giants’ biggest issues on offense last year was a lack of playmakers around sophomore quarterback Daniel Jones. Heading into this year Saquon Barkley (who in my opinion is the most talented back in the league) should be healthy, receiver Kenny Golladay was paid a whopping $72 million to come play in New York, and the Giants spent their first round pick on Kadarius Toney, an explosive receiver out of Florida. Daniel Jones may wind up disappointing in 2021, but a lack of playmakers around him won’t be the reason.
Will the Giants offense be elite this year? No, but behind Dallas, they have a real chance at being the second best offense in the division. Pairing an average to above average offense with a defense that sneakily finished in the top third of the league last year might just make New York the most well balanced team in the NFC East. It may not be exciting, but it might be enough to take the division crown.
Finally we come to the bottom of the barrel where we find the Eagles. First year head coach Nick Sirianni has his work cut out for him as he’s taking over a depleted roster that won just 4 games last year.
Expectations are low in the City of Brotherly Love this season, and the main hope is 2nd year quarterback Jalen Hurts blossoms into the team’s quarterback of the future. Philly fans can’t ask for too much this year, but if their young head coach and young quarterback show signs of life, that may be a foundation worth getting excited about moving forward.
NFC North
Packers -155, Vikings +260, Bears +460, Lions +2500
With Aaron Rodgers back in town, this one should be obvious.
Last year Rodgers and the Packers were absolutely dominant throughout the entire season. They earned a 13–3 record, good for the #1 seed in the NFC, and produced the highest scoring offense in the league that was historically great from an efficiency perspective.
How efficient were they? Here’s a stat I love that adds a little perspective.
The Packers had more touchdown passes (48) in 2020 than punts (47).
When your team is as good as the Packers were in 2020, there’s little reason to shake things up with your roster. Aaron Rodgers drama aside, priority number one for Green Bay this offseason was retaining their guys and positioning the team for another run in 2021.
Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, C Corey Linsley, and LT David Bakhtiari all earned First Team All-Pro honors in 2020, and all but Linsley will be suiting up in Green and Yellow again in 2021. Throw in two returning Pro Bowlers — RB Aaron Jones and G Elgdon Jenkins — a great playcalling head coach in Matt LaFleur, and the Packers have a recipe for success in 2021 once again.
While Green Bay’s offense was historically great, their defense was no slouch either. You won’t hear anyone claiming the Packers have a top tier defense, but both in terms of yards and points allowed, they were better than league average last year. While league average isn’t something to get excited about, it’s more than enough when Aaron Rodgers is on the other side of the ball.
One area where I’d like to see improvement out of Green Bay in 2021 is their ability to generate turnovers on defense. Though their defense was above average last year, there were only five games where they forced multiple turnovers. The Packers scored on 49.7% of their offensive possessions in 2020, so any extra possessions they got from their defense were backbreakers for their opponents.
We’ve all heard the saying “the best defense is a good offense” and there may be no where in the world where that statement is more true than in Green Bay Wisconsin.
While the Packers are a heavy favorite to win this division, the team with the second best odds can make their case for the playoffs as well.
Minnesota finished 2020 with a 7–9 record that was largely viewed as underwhelming. Their defense was one of the league’s worst, a rare sight for a Mike Zimmer coached team, and their front office acted accordingly this offseason.
Minnesota’s splashiest offseason move was signing former All Pro corner Patrick Peterson to help patch a big hole in a leaky secondary. Peterson’s presence along with a few lower profile signings give me reason to believe a bounce back year on that side of the ball is possible. Pair this with some serious star power on offense in Dalvin Cook and sophomore phenom Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings have a recipe for success in 2021.
Minnesota is a good team with the potential to make the playoffs via a Wild Card birth, but keeping up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is something I don’t see happening with an offense led by Kirk Cousins.
Speaking of quarterback play, there’s a lot of excitement in Chicago because the Bears traded up in first round of the draft to select Justin Fields out of Ohio State. The hope in Chicago is that Fields can be the long term answer at quarterback this team has desperately needed for years.
Fields is walking into a somewhat favorable situation in Chicago where he’ll have an offensive minded head coach, a superstar receiver in Allen Robinson, and one of the better defenses in the league supporting him on the other side of the ball. However as favorable as his situation is, he is still a rookie. Bears fans should be excited about their team’s future with Fields under center, but tempering expectations in year one is probably best for everyone.
Finally we come to the Lions who are a considered a long shot to win the division for good reason. This is a franchise that’s struggled to put a complete team together for years now, and getting rid of Matthew Stafford, their long time franchise QB, this offseason won’t help get them on track in the short term.
The Lions are a rebuilding team, and they’ve got a ways to go before they turn into a roster that’s ready to contend. A fresh start at quarterback and head coach may be just what the doctor ordered in Detroit, and although there will be some growing pains, this team can only go upwards from here.
NFC South
Buccaneers -195, Saints +330, Falcons +700, Panthers +1000
It’s no surprise the Bucs find themselves as a heavy favorite in the NFC South heading into 2021. The reigning Super Bowl champs had one of the most complete rosters in all of football last year, and their front office did a wonderful job keeping the majority of their team in house for the upcoming season.
Oh yeah, they’ve got a guy named Tom Brady lining up under center too.
Brady will be 44 years old this season, but it doesn’t appear he’s lost a step yet, and he’s got arguably the best supporting cast of his entire career around him. The Bucs have a superb offensive line, a trio of dominant receivers, and a defense that just held the Chiefs and their high powered offense to 9 points in the Super Bowl.
The Bucs should be dominant on both sides of the ball again this year. They possess playmakers at every level of the field, and can beat teams in a multitude of ways both on offense and on defense. This is a group that’s ready to march right back to the Super Bowl in 2021.
The only reason I can think of why this team could fall off this year would be if Brady finally starts to show his age. It’ll happen some day, but we’ve hit the point where it’s foolish to bet against him.
While the story in Tampa Bay appears to be largely the same as last year, New Orleans is bracing for a change they haven’t had to deal with in over a decade.
Future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees opted to hang up the cleats this offseason, and with him out of the picture New Orleans will be relying on either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston (two guys who’s names aren’t often paired with the words “Hall of Fame”) to man the most important position in the sport.
Luckily, whoever it is that lines up under center will have a great supporting cast around them. The Saints have an elite defense and some serious star power on offense that should keep them competitive all year long if the quarterback play is even league average. Playoffs aren’t out of the question for New Orleans in 2021, but they’re going up against a true juggernaut in the NFC South, and it’s hard to envision them being back to back division champs.
Another NFC South team said good bye to a franchise icon this offseason when Atlanta traded away Julio Jones — the franchise’s all time receiving leader. Many viewed this move as a sign of rebuilding, however I believe there’s reason for optimism in Atlanta heading into the season.
Although the Falcons finished a mere 4–12 last year, they were 2–8 in one score games indicating more often than not they were at the very least competitive. Expecting some positive regression in those one score games isn’t unreasonable, and I fully expect the Falcons’ record to improve by at least a couple of wins in 2021.
I’m excited to see what he new head coach Arthur Smith can do with an offense headlined by Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and #4 overall pick Kyle Pitts. I could easily see this team nearing the top of the league in points scored in 2021, and they have as good a shot as anyone at finishing 2nd in the division.
Last up we have the Panthers who I believe are a very strong 4th place team. Carolina took a flier this offseason by trading a second round pick to acquire quarterback Sam Darnold from the Jets. The hope in Carolina is a change of scenery will help Darnold, a former #3 overall pick, reach the potential he has yet to live up to coming out of USC.
It’s rare to see a change of scenery work out perfectly, but the landing spot in Carolina is a favorable one for Darnold. He’ll have the luxury of leaning on All Pro RB Christian McCaffrey to act as a focal point of the offense, and he’ll have some high quality receivers to throw to in D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson, and 2nd round pick Terrace Marshall. If Darnold can perform better than Teddy Bridgewater did in 2020, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this offense evolve from a below average unit into a top tier group in 2021.
NFC West
49ers +185, Rams +195, Seahawks +270, Cardinals +600
Finally we come to the NFC West which in my opinion is the most competitive division in football. I could easily see three teams making the postseason from this division and all three could be legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
The 49ers were bit hard by the injury bug last year, but don’t let their underwhelming 2020 record fool you. This is a very good football team who just two short years ago made the Super Bowl.
San Fransicso has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball in guys like Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and Trent Williams just to name a few. On top of that, head coach Kyle Shanahan is viewed as one of the best offensive minds in the league, and he’ll surely make the most of a stacked roster in 2021.
San Fransisco made a big splash this offseason when they traded up in the draft to select quarterback Trey Lance, but outside of this move they didn’t make a ton of noise in the offseason. One addition I love that’s flown under the radar was drafting RB Trey Sermon out of Ohio State. I think Sermon will play a valuable role in this offense right away and help take one of the league’s best run games to an even higher level in 2021.
This is one of my favorite rosters top to bottom in the NFL. Although they don’t have a superstar under center, I think they’ll get enough out of Garoppolo or Lance to emerge victorious in a tough NFC West.
The Rams were another team who made headlines this offseason by making a splasy move for a quarterback. They took a massive home run swing by trading for Matthew Stafford, a former #1 overall pick who’s put up gaudy numbers throughout his career, but hasn’t experienced a ton of team success.
Stafford never had a great supporting cast in Detroit, but he certainly won’t be able to use that excuse in L.A. moving forward. He’s joining a team that possessed the best defense in football last year, he’ll be paired with one of the best young head coaches in the NFL, and he’s stepping into a roster that’s just 3 years removed from a Super Bowl appearance.
It’ll be fascinating to see what Stafford does with his opportunity, and I’m excited to watch this Rams team in 2021. Although I prefer the 49ers in the NFC West, I still view the Rams as a lock for a Wild Card birth at a minimum. If the Stafford trade proves to be a success, the Rams will have as good of a shot as anyone at hoisting the Lombardi trophy come February.
We move over to Seattle next where the quarterback position is held down by one of the best in the league. Russell Wilson doesn’t have quite the supporting cast that Stafford or Garoppolo/Lance do, but he’s played at an MVP level for years now and has carried the Seahawks to the postseason year after year.
Seattle didn’t make any groundbreaking roster moves in 2021, but they did bring in Shane Waldron to take over the team’s Offensive Coordinator role. Waldron came from the Rams where he served as the team’s passing game coordinator, and the hope in Seattle is that the first-time NFL coordinator will bring a modern flair to an offense that has lacked creativity in the past. Seahawks fans have been begging the team to “#LetRussCook” for years now, and under Waldron they may just get their wish. If they do, don’t be surprised to see the Seahawks in the postseason and Wilson’s name mentioned in the MVP conversation.
Finally we arrive in Arizona where the Cardinals are viewed as a bit of a longshot to win the division. Headlined by electrifying quarterback Kyler Murray, the Cardinals are a fun and exciting team. However, I’m not convinced they’re great, and greatness is the minimum threshold in the NFC West.
Arizona attempted to keep up with the NFC West arms race this offseason by bringing in J.J. Watt and A.J. Green via free agency. Both of these guys are future Hall of Famers, but I believe their best football is likely behind them. They can each provide some juice at times, but I don’t think they can be viewed as guys who move the needle enough to change the outlook of this team.
The Cardinals are a good football team who find themselves trapped in a division featuring the NFC’s elites. They finished the 2020 season with an 8–8 record, and that’s right about where I expect them to finish this year as well.
