NFL Division Winners: AFC Predictions
With the draft and free agency in the rearview mirror, NFL rosters are largely set for the upcoming season. A few trades or late free-agent signings could throw a wrinkle or two into the equation, but for the most part, teams are preparing to go to war with the guys they already have in-house. This means we can plant our flags and start declaring which teams will exceed expectations, and which teams are set up for disappointment.
In part one of this two-part series, I’ll walk through each division in the AFC and predict who will earn themselves a home playoff game in 2021.
Note: I included odds from FanDuel Sportsbook strictly to serve as a measuring stick. My picks in this article are not taking odds into account and are based solely on my opinions.
AFC East
Bills -150, Dolphins +310, Patriots +350, Jets +2100
Let’s start this article off with my hottest take in the AFC. No, I’m not picking the Jets, but I do believe the New England Patriots will reclaim their AFC East crown in 2021.
COVID made this past NFL season the strangest in recent memory, and no team was impacted by this more than the Patriots. They had a league-high eight players opt out for the entire season, and on top of that, a guy named Tom Brady decided to leave town and head to Tampa Bay.
They won’t be getting Brady back, but the return of opt out players paired with an uncharacteristic splurge in free agency means this year’s Patriots roster should have much more talent across the board.
Just two short seasons ago New England possessed a historically great defense, and an influx of new and returning talent should allow them to re-establish dominance on that side of the ball in 2021. On offense, Cam Newton is entering the season healthy and will get to experience his first full offseason as a Patriot. 2020 was far from Newton’s best year, but he still completed over 65% of his passes and remained a threat on the ground with 8 rushing TDs despite battling injuries all season.
I don’t expect this offense to be elite by any stretch of the imagination, but I trust the creative coaching staff in New England to figure out how to get the most out of Newton and produce an offense that’s at least average. Two tight end sets, misdirections, QB runs, and play-action passes will be the backbone of an offense that slows the game down and keeps defenses on their heels all season long.
Not many people are high on the Patriots’ offense heading into the season, but I’m one of the few people bullish on this unit. The results may not look pretty, but I believe the marriage of an elite defense and a complimentary, run-first offense will get the Pats back to the top of the AFC East.
So what about the two teams with better odds than the Pats?
Josh Allen was an MVP candidate in 2020 and helped Buffalo house the second best offense in the league measured by yards per game. I expect a little bit of regression for this offense in 2021, and I worry about their lack of balance on that side of the ball. Their run game doesn’t scare anyone and they lack top-level playmakers outside of Allen and Stefon Diggs. I still believe this is a playoff team, but expectations are getting a little out of hand.
The Dolphins, like the Patriots, are a team with a great defense and few holes on their roster. The biggest cause for hesitation with this team is second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. This offseason, Miami attempted to make life easier for Tagovailoa by bringing Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle into the fold — two guys who can infuse the offense with some gamebreaking speed. Ultimately Miami’s season is going to come down to what they can get out of their quarterback.
Then there’s the Jets. New head coach Robert Saleh and potential franchise QB Zach Wilson should inspire hope for this franchise moving forward, but turning into a contender right away is likely asking for too much. For now, I’d still bet on them finishing last in a tough division.
The AFC East could potentially put three teams in the postseason, but when I’m picking my division winner I want the franchise that’s dominated the league since the turn of the century. Give me the Pats in a bounce back year.
AFC North
Ravens +115, Browns +145, Steelers +440, Bengals +2300
No, those odds are not a typo. The Browns are in fact a legitimate contender in the AFC North this year.
After making the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years this past season, the Browns are entering 2021 with some well deserved buzz. Anyone who questioned the legitimacy of their playoff birth last year was quickly silenced after the Browns dismantled their division rival Steelers in the first round.
Cleveland put themselves on the map in 2020, but despite their postseason performances, I think the hype has gone too far.
The Browns finished 2020 with an impressive 11 wins, but when you put these wins under the microscope their record suddenly looks less impressive. Only 3 of these wins came against teams with a record of .500 or better — one of which came in week 17 against a reeling Pittsburgh team who was resting their starters.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Browns are a good team, but at the end of the day being simply good doesn’t win you the AFC North. If Cleveland wants to claim the division crown they’ll need to get past a team that swept them last year, has a former league MVP under center, and won double-digit games each of the past three seasons.
Ever since being named a full time starter in 2019, Lamar Jackson has made Baltimore home to the league’s top rushing offense. They broke records in 2019, and entering 2021 there’s no reason to believe their dominance on the ground won’t continue.
While the Ravens’ rushing attack resembles a juggernaut that can’t be stopped, the Browns’ ground game is in the NFL’s elite tier as well. The two-headed monster that is Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt make up arguably the best RB duo in the league, and they happen to run behind an offensive line that mauls any defenders who cross their path. Both of these teams are led by coaching staffs that want to establish their dominance on the ground, and they each finished top 3 in rushing yards as a team this past season. Don’t be surprised to see both of these teams hit that mark again in 2021.
Picking which of these teams will possess a better offense this season may be splitting hairs, but Baltimore’s the clear winner on the other side of the ball. Last year the Ravens’ defense finished 2nd in the league in points allowed per game, while Cleveland finished an uninspiring 21st.
The Browns made some savvy additions to their defense this offseason by signing Jadaveon Clowney and Malik Jackson to beef up their front four. They followed these signings up by drafting Notre Dame LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, a guy viewed by many as the steal of the draft. With these key additions, I expect the Cleveland defense to take a step forward this year, but getting to Baltimore’s level on that side of the ball would require a massive leap. The gap on defense between Cleveland and Baltimore is what makes the Ravens my favorite to win the AFC North this year.
As for the other two teams in the division, the Steelers are viewed by many as a team ready to spiral out of control, meanwhile the Bengals are a young who hasn’t arrived quite yet.
After starting 2020 with an 11–0 record, Pittsburgh fell off a cliff by finishing the season 1–4 in their last 5 games. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s age started to show down the stretch, and his performance did little to inspire hope for a return to form this year. Steelers fans may think the sky is falling in 2021, but an elite defense and an armada of game-breaking playmakers surrounding Roethlisberger on offense could help mask some of his decline. This team is too talented to bottom out in 2021, but making the playoffs in what should be a tough division is likely asking for too much.
Then there’s the Bengals who should be happy just to be mentioned in this conversation. 2020 1st overall pick Joe Burrow showed signs of greatness before tearing his ACL in his first NFL season. In the 2021 draft, Cincinnati reunited Burrow with his favorite college target when they spent the #5 overall pick on LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase, a guy who adds an explosive element to an offense that’s already littered with playmakers. There are a lot of ifs surrounding this team heading into 2021, but if things go well with Burrow’s recovery and progression, the Bengals could turn heads sooner rather than later. For now they’re still at the bottom of a very tough division.
This season’s race for the top seed in the AFC North should be a fun one to watch. The Browns may be the trendy team in this division, but the Ravens are a well established powerhouse who should be viewed as top dog.
AFC South
Colts +110, Titans +115, Jaguars +700, Texans +2700
Indianapolis has the best defense in this division (likely by a wide margin), and one of the most well-balanced rosters in the entire NFL. They’re returning most of their key players heading into 2021, but their biggest question surrounds the most important position in the sport.
Indianapolis made a risky move this offseason when they traded for Carson Wentz after an… uh… how do I put this lightly… underwhelming 2020 season in Philadelphia. As a lifelong Eagles fan, I hope a change of scenery and great supporting cast can get Wentz back on track, but after watching every single Eagles game last year I don’t see much reason for optimism.
If Wentz returns to form, I think the Colts possess the greatest upside in this division, but since I’m picking the team who has the best chance of simply winning the AFC South, I have to go with Tennessee. The Titans are the reigning champs in the AFC South, and taking the crown away from King Henry and company in 2021 won’t be easy.
I typically don’t like to overreact to one big move in the offseason, but adding Julio Jones to an already potent offense has me excited about this team’s potential in 2021. Ryan Tannehill might be the most underrated QB in the league, and the trio of Henry, Jones, and 3rd year WR A.J. Brown forms arguably the best trio of playmakers I’ve ever seen. It’ll be a true pick your poison situation every week for opposing defenses. As long as this offense stays healthy, they possess the talent to be a top 5 unit in the NFL.
Despite my excitement towards the Tennessee offense, this team doesn’t enter the season without any red flags. First off, the other side of the ball likely won’t be pretty. They finished with the 5th worst defense in terms of yards allowed last year, and they’ve given me no reason to believe they’ll be much better this season. With a bottom tier defense, there will be a lot of pressure on the offense to frequently put up 30+ points to win games this year.
To make the challenge on offense even greater, the Titans lost their highly touted Offensive Coordinator, Arthur Smith, this offseason when he took the Falcons’ head coaching gig. The hope in Tennessee is the addition of Jones can help offset Smith’s departure, but no matter how favorable his situation is, new OC Todd Downing will need to produce an elite offense in 2021 if Tennessee wants to remain atop the AFC South. He has the roster talent to do it, but putting up 30+ points week in and week out is asking a lot for anyone.
As for the other teams in the division, the Jaguars should be exciting in year one of the Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer experience. I expect to see some innovation on offense and a drastic improvement from their one win performance in 2020. With that being said, they still have a roster that’s far from complete heading into 2021, and I don’t expect this team to be contenders in the immediate future. It may take some time, but there’s reason for optimism in Jacksonville.
Unfortunately, optimism appears to be lacking for the last team in this division. Houston, you have a problem.
AFC West
Chiefs -290, Chargers +500, Broncos +600, Raiders +1800
Let’s be real here, the Chiefs are winning this division.
They still have the best quarterback in the game, a Hall of Fame head coach, and some electrifying playmakers on offense. All these ingredients add up to an absolutely terrifying offense that could very well lead the league in points scored in 2021.
If there was one area to nitpick when it came to the Chiefs’ offense last year, it was the hog mollies up front. After watching Mahomes run for his life in Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City front office acted swiftly to revamp the offensive line this offseason. Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, and Kyle Long were all brought in to help keep Mahomes upright in 2021. Add in a few players returning from injury, and this group may have quickly transformed from the biggest weakness on the team into one of the best units in the league.
The Chiefs should be an elite team once again this season, and I’d be shocked to see them finish any lower than 1st place in the AFC West.
Of the three other AFC West teams aiming to top the Chiefs, the Chargers have the best shot at taking a big leap in 2021. Similar to Kansas City, Los Angeles is home to a young (superstar?) quarterback who had to deal with some protection issues in 2020. In his rookie campaign, Justin Herbert sent shockwaves across the league as he put up impressive numbers despite frequently being asked to make plays behind a porous offensive line. L.A. has a lot of young, emerging talent on their roster, and if a few guys make a leap this year, the Chargers will force Kansas City to keep an eye on their rearview mirror.
On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, there are the Broncos. Denver will likely have the best defense in the division, possibly in the league, but they lack the necessary firepower on offense to keep pace with the Chiefs’ high octane attack. Denver possesses top end talent at just about every position on the field, but the problem is they lack talent at the most important position of all. The camp battle for the starting QB role between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater will be an interesting one to watch, but ultimately neither of these guys have what it takes to pose a serious threat to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Finally we move to Las Vegas, a team that won a surprising amount of games in 2020 and found themselves just barely outside the playoff picture. The Raiders are another team that possess a well balanced roster, but they lack guys who can singlehandedly shift the outcome of a game in favor of their team. This is a group that overachieved in 2020, and while the rest of the division appears to have taken a step forward this offseason, none of the moves made by the Raiders lead me to believe they’re ready to do the same.
At the end of the day, this is a division where you just can’t overthink it. The Chiefs are in a league of their own in the AFC West.
