Who is Most Capable of Dethroning the Chiefs?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team yet many still view the defending champion Chiefs as the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy once again when it’s all said and done.
The 2020 Chiefs faced very little turnover from last year’s championship squad, and all signs are pointing towards them making another run at the title this postseason. Patrick Mahomes has established himself as a frontrunner for the NFL MVP award once again as he’s leading this Chiefs offense to a league best 32.1 points per game. The Chiefs have only turned the ball over 7 times so far this year and they possess the second best third down conversion rate in the league where they convert just a hair over 50% of their attempts. It’s borderline impossible to either slow this offense down or take the ball away from them, so how on earth is an opposing team supposed to beat them?
Since being named starter in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has an impressive 32–8 win-loss record in the regular season. In their 8 losses, the Chiefs offense failed to score below 20 points just once, and across all 8 games they’ve averaged 31.4 points per game. Although the point totals have remained impressive in their losses, the one area where the Chiefs appear to have an achilles heal is in the turnover battle. Although the offense has rarely turned the ball over in 2020 in their 8 losses with Mahomes under center they possessed a positive turnover margin just twice. If you win the turnover battle and have an offense capable of keeping up and capitalizing on extra possessions, your team has a shot at taking down the Chiefs.
Looking at data from 2020, only three teams are in both the top quartile in points scored and turnover margin — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. Unsurprisingly these are three teams with championship aspirations who possess well balanced rosters capable of going toe to toe with the league’s best teams. Let’s take a deeper look at how these teams stack up with the Chiefs and find out what it would take for them to possibly claim a title of their own.
Tampa Bay
Of the three qualified teams I think Tampa Bay will have the hardest time taking down Kansas City largely due to how difficult the path will be to get there. The Bucs have already suffered two division losses to the Saints meaning it’s highly likely they will have to make their championship run as a Wild Card. Since 1970 when the Wild Card system was created, only 10 Wild Cards have made it to the Super Bowl, and only 6 of those teams have won it all.
Although the odds may be stacked against them, going against Tom Brady in the playoffs is always a tough bet. The list of quarterbacks capable of going toe to toe with the Mahomes-led Chiefs is short, but the GOAT has bested the young quarterback twice already in the four games where the two have squared off with Brady possessing the lone postseason victory.
The 2020 Buccaneers haven’t looked as crisp as Brady’s previous New England teams, but the one thing this Bucs team possess in bunches is offensive firepower. Between Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and the recently-acquired Antonio Brown, the team has three studs at the receiver position who are all more than capable of playing at a Pro Bowl level. Throw in a resurgent Rob Gronkowski and impressive play by running back Ronald Jones and this offense has the weapons necessary to put points on the board in the blink of an eye.
Recency bias may lead people to point a finger at disappointing offensive performances against the Rams and Saints in back to back weeks, but those are two of the top rated defenses in football. This season the Bucs have already lost four games, but all four of those games have come against top 10 NFL defenses — the Rams (1st), the Saints twice (3rd), and the Bears (9th). Despite poor outings against these formidable foes, the Tampa Bay offense still ranks 6th in the league in points per game averaging 29.1 per outing on the season. Although the Chiefs defense has improved in recent years, they’re still middle a middle of the pack team on this side of the ball and it’s hard to envision them slowing down Brady and his arsenal of playmakers.
The scariest part about this Bucs offense is that they may get even more dangerous as the season progresses. Many view Antonio Brown as the best receiver of the last decade, and it’s not unreasonable to think as he acclimates within this offense he could wind up being their most dangerous weapon. If defenses are forced to double team Brown or have their best cornerback shadow him, Evans, Godwin, and Gronk will have no problem taking advantage of the defense and exploiting mismatches. Just look at what Mike Evans was able to do as soon as the Rams went away from shadowing him with Jalen Ramsey in Monday Night’s matchup:
On the other side of the ball the Bucs defense has been one of the pleasant surprises in the league so far this year. Fueled by a ferocious front 7 and a creative scheme implemented by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, the Bucs find themselves ranked 5th in the league in yards allowed, and 2nd in turnovers forced. The play has been inconsistent as evidence by the poor outings against New Orleans and other opponents, but other dominant performances such as the 38–10 drubbing of the Green Bay Packers should provide Bucs fans with plenty of reason for optimism.
Aaron Rodgers is another name who belongs in the MVP race this year, but if you watched the matchup between the Bucs and the Packers this fact may surprise you. In the week six matchup between Tampa Bay and Green Bay, the Bucs defense held Rodgers to just 160 passing yards, picked off two of his passes, and sacked the future Hall of Famer 4 times in his worst performance of the season. This is just one game, but it goes to show that this is a unit that’s capable of making life miserable on even the best opposing quarterbacks when they’re playing at their best. Expecting an outing this dominant against Mahomes and the Chiefs would be a tall order, but anything close to this level of play against the defending champs could be enough to put the Bucs in a position to put a 7th ring on Brady’s fingers.
New Orleans
Over these past few seasons the Saints have been synonymous with heartbreak when it comes to the NFL postseason. From the Minneapolis miracle three years back to being on the wrong side of a critical pass interference call the previous two postseasons, New Orleans simply hasn’t been able to catch a break. Saints fans across the nation are hoping that Lady Luck decides to break out the black and gold this postseason (or at least not show up wearing the other team’s colors) as the franchise continues it’s quest for their 2nd Super Bowl Title.
Since starting off the season 1–2, the Saints have gone on to win 7 straight games as the team finds themselves in pole position to receive the #1 seed in the NFC this year. Although home field advantage may not be as powerful in empty stadiums, giving Sean Payton and his team a first round bye could spell trouble for the rest of the NFC.
Similar to Tampa Bay, New Orleans is home to one of the most well balanced rosters in the NFL that’s capable of beating you in a variety of ways. The Saints hope to have future Hall of Famer Drew Brees under center for the team’s playoff push, but even if they don’t the star power surrounding Taysom Hill on offense may be enough for this team to make a run. New Orleans doesn’t quite have the depth of weapons that Tampa Bay possesses, but their top two stars may shine the brightest. Alvin Kamara has been putting the team on his back so far in 2020 as the electrifying running sits second in the league in yards from scrimmage trailing only Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook. The craziest part about Kamara is there’s an argument to be made that he’s only the 2nd best player on the Saints’ offense. Michael Thomas has missed a number of games due to injury this year, but the NFL’s record holder for receptions in a season appears to be back healthy and ready to dominate. Regardless of who’s under center, Thomas is capable of taking over a game and demanding attention from opposing defenses as evidenced by his 9 receptions for 104 yards in Taysom Hill’s first start this past weekend.
In a matchup with Kansas City, the duo of Thomas and Kamara would surely cause headaches for Chiefs’ Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnualo has been around the NFL for a long time and he’s smart enough to understand that his defense isn’t the focal point of this Chiefs team. His defense doesn’t need to consistently dominate to win games, but rather they need to be opportunistic and generate big plays that can get the ball back in the hands of his offense. Letting up a score isn’t the end of the world when you have the league’s best offense backing you up, but creating timely turnovers that provide this Chiefs offense with extra opportunities can quickly put games out of reach. The Chiefs are currently tied for 7th in the league in takeaways largely due to this approach, but New Orleans is one of the toughest teams to take the ball away from. The combination of Drew Brees and Taysom Hill have combined for just 3 interceptions on the year, and the team’s decision to name Hill the starter over the turnover-prone Jameis Winston indicates the Saints may prioritize maintaining possession over the upside the league’s 2019 passing yardage leader provides.
For a defense that’s built around big plays and creating chaos, the methodical, well-balanced offense New Orleans brings to the table may be the perfect counter punch. While Kansas City’s defense is built around getting the ball back in the hands of Patrick Mahomes and their electrifying offense, the Saints have the playmakers and offensive scheme capable of keeping Mahomes on the sidelines for large chunks of the game in an attempt to limit the damage the young QB is capable of.
Although the Saints have historically been known for their impressive quarterback play and high powered offenses, this year’s defensive unit may be even more impressive than their offense. The Saints come at you with a well rounded defense possessing few holes while simultaneiously possessing star power at every level of the field. Matching up against the Chiefs and their array of weapons on offense is no easy task, but if there’s a team capable of holding their own against Kansas City’s playmakers it may just be New Orleans. Star cornerback Marshon Lattimore has proven capable of erasing some of the leagues best receivers and having him shadow Tyreek Hill or Sammy Watkins in a potential Super Bowl matchup could somewhat neutralize one of the Chiefs top options. At tight end, Travis Kelce has been a nightmare for every defense he’s faced, but the Saints brought back Pro Bowl safety Malcolm Jenkins this offseason to help boost their championship aspirations as Jenkins is one of the more versatile safeties in the NFL capable of holding his own in coverage against some of the leagues best tight ends and runnings backs. While these two studs in the secondary are busy slowing down opposing pass catchers, Cam Jordan will be busy speeding up Mahomes’ internal play clock as the dominant pass rusher will look to add a few game breaking plays of his own as he gets after the MVP caliber quarterback. Not quite satisfied with their already elite defense, the Saints were able to add one last piece right before the trade deadline at the only position where the team was lacking a bonafide star. New Orleans brought in Kwon Alexander, a sideline to sideline linebacker capable of shutting down opposing runnings backs both in coverage and against the run. As Alexander begins to get more and more comfortable within the Saints defensive scheme, he’ll prove to be yet another key contributor on a defense that’s already littered with stars.
On paper the Saints may matchup with the Chiefs better than any team in the league, but slowing down the Chiefs offense is much easier said than done, and Drew Brees’ injury status will certainly play a big role in the team’s overall potential. Although the task will be difficult, New Orleans roster lacks many exploitable holes and may be able to frustrate Kansas City enough on both sides of the ball to eek out a victory when it matters most.
Pittsburgh
The NFL’s lone undefeated team is the one most likely to actually face the Chiefs in the postseason this year simply due to the fact that the two teams square off on the same side of the bracket. Pittsburgh will look to continue it’s impressive play as the season goes on in hopes to retain the top seed in the AFC providing them with the conference’s only postseason bye and home field throughout the playoffs.
Possessing arguably the leagues best defense, if there’s a team capable of causing fits for the high-powered Chiefs offense for even a portion of a game it may just be the Steelers. This defense is fueled by two Defensive Player of the Year candidates in pass rusher T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the talent doesn’t stop there. The Steelers have playmakers at every level of the field and don’t appear to have any glaring weak spots on that side of the ball making life difficult on every offense they’ve faced so far this year.
This defense excels when it comes to getting the ball back to their offense by generating a big play. They rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to getting off the field on third down, but their aggressive scheme puts emphasis on creating pressure and getting the ball back into the hands of their offense. Pittsburgh blitzes and applies pressure at the highest rate in the league, and the result of this aggression has placed them atop the league leaderboard in both sacks and takeaways. By constantly creating big plays this defense has been able to limit the damage opposing offenses are able to inflict upon them and the Steelers are allowing the fewest points in the league as a result. Getting the ball away from Mahomes and the Chiefs will be their toughest task yet, but even generating just a few of these gamebreaking plays may be enough to turn the tide in a competitive AFC playoff matchup.
The impressive play from the Steelers this year hasn’t been limited to just the defensive side of the ball. Ben Roethlisberger has been playing at a Pro Bowl level following his return from injury and the supporting cast he has around him is one of the best he’s had in years. Pittsburgh may not have quite the same level of firepower as Tampa Bay, but they sure are close. Emerging superstar wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool have burst onto the scene in 2020, while JuJu Smith-Schuster remains one of the deadliest receivers in the league out of the slot. Roethlisberger has enjoyed heavily feeding his playmakers throughout the season en route to throwing the 5th most passing touchdowns so far on the season while leading the Steelers offense to a 4th place ranking in total points per game. He’s had no problem getting all of his receivers involved as the trio mentioned above, along with tight end Eric Ebron, have have all found the end zone at least four times this season.
The Pittsburgh passing game is extremely well balance making it impossible for opposing defense to key in on just one guy. Johnson leads the team in target percentage with just a hair over 21% of Roethlisberger’s throws heading his way, but Claypool and Smith-Schuster aren’t far behind in that category. Some opposing defenses have elected to key in on Johnson allowing Claypool and Smith-Schuster to feast on single coverage. Other teams have tried to eliminate another option for Pittsburgh but the results have consistently been the same. As opposing defenses are forced to take a pick your poison approach when handling this offense, the Steelers wide receivers have been happy to share the wealth as all three possess at least one multi-touchdown game on the season.
There’s a reason the Steelers are undefeated so far this year and it’s going to be a tough task for whichever team wants to add that first tally in their loss column. A matchup with the Chiefs will likely come down to which team can find a way to generate enough big plays to swing the tide in favor of the game while limiting their own mistakes. Pittsburgh’s ability to create chaos for opposing quarterback’s while simultaneously slicing up opposing defenses with their lethal passing game may just be enough to take down the champs.
There’s a common theme between these three teams. Serious weapons on offense, future Hall of Famers under center, and well balanced rosters who’s defenses are just as impressive as their offenses. They each possess the potential to take down the Chiefs, but all three would do so in a slightly different manner and each matchup would be a treat to watch.
The 49ers boasted a similarly well constructed roster last year, and it looked as though that may have been enough to stop the Chiefs for about three quarters until Mahomes and the offense kicked it into gear late in the game. In order to take down the champs it requires elite play from both sides of the ball for four full quarters. Although all three of these teams are capable of pulling off this task, it won’t come easy . Whoever gets the privilege of facing the Chiefs come January (or even February) will have their hands full and football fans across the country should be excited to watch how it unfolds.
