What’s the Chief Problem in Kansas City?
Coming into 2021, Patrick Mahomes hadn’t played a season where he lost more than four regular season games.
He’s managed to hit that mark less than halfway through the 2021 season.
Through 7 weeks, Mahomes and the reigning AFC champs possess a 3–4 record and are tied for last place in the AFC West. For a team that entered the season with Super Bowl expectations, a losing record this far into the season has to be shocking.
Abysmal play from the defense has been a well documented scapegoat, but following a 27–3 loss to the Titans, questions about the offense have started surfacing as well.
Kansas City is showing signs of mortality we aren’t used to seeing from a team quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes, and people are starting to wonder — is there something wrong with the Chiefs?
No matter how popular spread offenses and downfield passing games are becoming in the NFL, football is still a game that’s won and lost in the trenches.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, one of the more memorable examples of dominant trench play came in their Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
As good as Patrick Mahomes is, no quarterback could have won that game behind the Chiefs’ offensive line. He was running for his life on seemingly every snap, and at no point in the game did it appear the Chiefs had any answers for a dominant Tampa Bay defensive front.
The intention of the offseason became clear for the Kansas City Front Office — protect the $500 million quarterback.
Aggressive trades and free agent signings have meant an entirely new group of guys are protecting Mahomes this year. So far their play has been at least average if not better, but Mahomes is still playing like the Bucs defensive line is breathing down his neck.
He may lack confidence in the new faces protecting him, or maybe he’s still experiencing some form of shellshock from the traumatic Super Bowl performance. Either way, it’s hard to look at Mahomes’ performance this season and say he’s playing at his peak.
Kansas City fans may not want to hear this, but what we’re seeing from Mahomes is eerily similar to what we saw from Carson Wentz during his final season in Philadelphia.
I’m not saying they’re similar in terms of talent (Mahomes is still very much the superior quarterback), but the “Hero Ball” that Wentz was heavily scrutinized for last year is exactly what we’re seeing from Kansas City’s young quarterback.
Both quarterbacks developed bad habits like trying to avoid pressure solely on their own, dropping back too far in the pocket, and playing the game in an unstructured manner that makes it hard to protect for them.
Since he took over as starter back in 2018, Mahomes’ play has been synonymous with excellent, mistake-free football. His ability to generate magic outside the normal structure of a play is part of what makes him so great, but this year it’s been the cause of much frustration for the Chiefs.
He’s constantly trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and plays like the one below have been far too common for a player of Mahomes’ caliber:
The above play came on a 3rd and 1 during the final seconds of the first half in week 6. The Chiefs were down 3 points, and rather than accepting a loss on the play and settling for a game-tying field goal, Mahomes felt the need to chuck it up and hope for the best.
He knows his defense is going to let up a ton of points, and he’s playing the game as if every play needs to be a touchdown for his team to stand a chance.
In just 7 games this year, Mahomes already has 9 interceptions — more than his season total from either 2020 or 2019. The mental part of his game just looks off.
Even when he has the time and space necessary to execute, Mahomes’ internal clock is ticking so fast that panic sets in and causes him to scramble. With each missed play, it feels like Mahomes is only putting more pressure on himself, and before long a ripple effect starts working against him.
Take this play from week 5 against the Bills as an example. After methodically driving all the way down to the Buffalo 5 yard line, Mahomes faces some light pressure before panic sets in:
Greg Rousseau (Bills #50) gets a good jump on Lucas Niang (Chiefs #67) and as soon as Mahomes senses the pressure, he starts going off script.
Niang is largely able to recover after getting beat initially, and he uses Rousseau’s momentum against him to drive him beyond where Mahomes should be standing in the pocket.
The rest of the line holds up well and creates a safe space for Mahomes to comfortably operate within. All he needs to do is take a small step up and to the left, reset his feet, and continue progressing through his reads.
Instead, he turns his back on the play and aggressively scrambles towards the left sideline
Mahomes does a good job of evading the pressure and getting his eyes back downfield, but he misses Tyreek Hill getting open along the back of the end zone. Instead of making the touchdown throw, he continues scrambling and ultimately forfeits the play by taking a sack.
This is just one example, but it perfectly highlights the major flaw with Mahomes this season. Simply put, he’s trying to do too much on his own.
Asking Mahomes to start the season with five new guys protecting him was destined to come with some growing pains.
Regardless of how well an offensive line is playing, it takes time for a quarterback to get in sync with his protection. Before long Mahomes and the guys in front of him will be on the same page, and improved play from the entire Chiefs’ offense will follow suit.
It’s important to note that even with all the headlines surrounding this team, the Chiefs haven’t been bad offensively.
They still rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per game, but those untimely turnovers and a few missed opportunites have meant those yards have only translated a #8 ranking in points per game. Kansas City is still a very good offense, but they have some flaws that we’re not used to seeing from this group.
Cleaning up some of the bad habits surfacing in Mahomes’ game won’t be easy, but Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid is likely the perfect man for the job. Reid’s a quarterback guru and there’s little doubt he’ll eventually be able to fix what’s ailing his young signal caller.
The question now becomes, will the turnaround happen quick enough to salvage the 2021 season?
It’s hard to make three straight Super Bowls, and every once in a while good teams have bad years. The Chiefs have made the playoffs every year since 2014, but with each passing week, it’s becoming more likely that streak comes to an end this season.
As it currently stands, 538 gives Kansas City a 44% chance of making the postseason. A slightly below 50/50 chance feels perfect for this team. There are some very real flaws that can’t be ignored, but we also need to remember… this is still the Chiefs we’re talking about.
This team — including the quarterback — is playing well below their potential right now. Despite a slow start to the season, Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, and any time he lines up under center his team will have a chance at victory.
Would it surprise anyone if the Chiefs turn things around in the blink of an eye and never look back?
