What’s it Going to Take for the Chicago Bears to Contend for a Super Bowl?

The Chicago Bears started off 2020 with a 5–1 record that was commonly viewed as fraudulent. Many pointed a finger at an early season quarterback change and a soft opening schedule as reasons to expect regression moving forward. Fast forward to today, and the Bears have since dropped two straight and possess what appears to be a more appropriate 5–3 record.

This Bears team is particularly frustrating to watch because they’ve shown flashes indicating they might be one of those talented teams that’s just “one piece away” from making a title run. They’re littered with play makers on the defensive side of the ball with the likes of Khalil Mack and company, and on offense they have one of the best wide outs in the game in Allen Robinson along with a handful of capable play makers surrounding him. When you take a look at this roster quarterback jumps off the page as the weak link.

Photo from NBC Sports

Midway through the Bears week 3 game against the Colts, third year starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky was benched in favor of Nick Foles, a veteran quarterback the team traded for this past off-season. The team hoped this change would provide the team with competency at the position. Competency was all the team was hoping for, and so far they have yet to find it.

In the 4.5 games he’s played for the Bears, Foles has yet to throw for 300 yards or produce more than 23 points in a game. It’s easy to say he’s underperforming, and you could even argue that he’s simply not a good NFL quarterback. Just last week a quote from the starting QB was released that raised some eyebrows across the league:

“Sometimes play calls come in and I know I don’t have time to execute that play call. I’m the one out here getting hit. Sometimes the guy calling the plays, Matt Nagy, doesn’t know how much time there is back here.”

It’s rare for a quarterback to call out his coach (and to a lesser extent his offensive line) so blatantly like this. Was Nick Foles onto something here or is this simply a quarterback pointing a finger to avoid blame falling on himself?

After 4 weeks with Foles, there are Bears fans clamoring for Trubisky to be renamed the starter and hopefully provide a much needed spark for the offense. Desperate times call for desperate measures, but I think we all know that Trubisky is not the solution to the problem at hand. The Bears are going to ride out the Foles/Nagy combination for the remainder of the year and hope for better results. Can Foles’ comments about his coach help ignite something for this offense, or is it more likely that the lackluster performances continue for the remainder of the season?

Most NFL fans view Nick Foles as an average to below average NFL quarterback. However unlike most QBs in this camp, Foles didn’t earn this reputation by being consistently mediocre, but rather he earned it by being one of the most polarizing players in NFL history. Foles is like a kid in school with a 2.5 GPA, but instead of earning that average with a steady dose of Bs and Cs, he got it by earning all As and Fs.

Let’s take a look at some key points on the insane timeline that is Nick Foles’ NFL career:

• 2012: Drafted in the third round by the Philadelphia Eagles
• 2013: Set NFL records for touchdowns in a game (tied), passer rating in a season, most consecutive completions in a game (tied), and touchdown to interception ratio
• 2013: Selected to his first and only Pro Bowl
• 2015: Traded to the Rams for Sam Bradford
• 2017: Resigns with Eagles as a backup, wins Super Bowl LII MVP
• 2019: Signs $88 Million deal with the Jaguars, benched in favor of rookie undrafted free agent Gardner Minshew
• 2020: Traded to the Bears, replaces Trubisky as starter in 3rd game

What a roller coaster ride of ups and downs. How is it possible for a player to play so well at times, yet just a few years later get benched in favor of Gardner Minshew?

The only team Foles found any real success with in the NFL has been Philadelphia. His success with the team came under three different coaches — future Hall of Famer Andy Reid, Chip Kelly (oof!), and Doug Pederson — so it wasn’t as if he only fits one specific scheme or coaching style. Although the coaching staff in Philly saw many changes, one thing within the organization remained constant. The Eagles are a team that put extreme emphasis on creating an environment that allows their quarterbacks to succeed. They invest heavy draft capital and salary cap space in the offensive line, they seek coaches who can help develop the quarterback position, and they aren’t afraid to spend big to surround their signal callers with weapons. It’s a little easier to find success in the NFL when you have a supporting cast dedicated to making you look good, and that’s exactly what Foles had in Philly.

A key component of Foles’ miraculous Super Bowl run in Philly was the team’s willingness to adapt their offense on the fly to fit the QB’s skillset. Let’s look at another quote from Foles to see what I mean:

“I would say the big thing in Philly was I had coaches that recognized my skillset apart from Carson’s, and we were able to develop a game plan I loved and I could go out there and play with my eyes closed,”

The high praise for the coaching staff in Philadelphia is a stark contrast to the earlier quote when Foles referenced Nagy’s play calling.

Foles’ biggest strengths as a passer are his ability to quickly read a defense and make timely and accurate throws within the rhythm of an offense. When the Eagles were making adjustments for their new starting QB, they didn’t recreate their entire playbook. Instead they emphasized the specific plays within their existing offense that catered to Foles’ biggest strengths. They didn’t ask Foles to try and become Carson Wentz, they simply let Foles be Foles and were rewarded with a Lombardi trophy.

Regardless of how successful he has been at his peak, I don’t think many are making the argument that Foles is a superstar quarterback. He’s not a guy that can get plugged into any offense and create points out of thin air, but his success with the Eagles indicates that he’s capable of more than what he’s accomplishing right now in Chicago. He isn’t a superstar, but in the right environment he’s capable of playing like one.

Matt Nagy was hired as the Bears head coach in 2018 after working his way up the NFL coaching ladder. He‘s a member of the impressive Andy Reid coaching tree and when the Bears hired him they were hoping he would become the next Reid disciple destined for success as a head coach.

In his debut season it looked as though that hope may come true. Nagy and the Bears came out of the gates swinging as he and rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky led the Bears to an impressive 12–4 record and a 1st place finish in the NFC North. After their debut campaigns, many were ready to anoint the QB/head coach pairing as one ready to make waves in the NFL.

Two seasons later, the same people singing the praises of Nagy and Trubisky find themselves frustrated with the team’s (lack of) offensive output. Nagy was hired to come in and be an offensive guru capable of molding Chicago’s young quarterback and creating a high powered offense. His win-loss record has been impressive so far, but most wins for his Chicago teams have come in spite of their offense rather than because of it. Take a look at the chart below to see where Nagy’s Bears teams have ranked in terms of total offense and defense based on yards per game:

Going .500 or better despite possessing a bottom four offense in the NFL says volumes about how dominant this Bears’ defense has been. The offensive ineptitude has consistently made life difficult for the defense, yet the unit has risen to the occasion time and time again to put the team on their backs and win games. Although having an elite defense is something to be happy about, this is not the image the Bears had in mind when they entered the Matt Nagy era.

When the team hired Nagy, they were hoping to see similar results to what the Eagles saw when they poached Doug Pederson from the Andy Reid coaching tree just two years prior. Andy Reid is a wizard who produces a head coaching candidate every few years, but even with the departure of numerous staff members Reid’s offenses have never missed a beat. When hiring a Reid understudy you’re looking for a guy who has learned from Reid and can run a team in a similar fashion. You’re not stealing one of his staff members hoping they’ve been the key to his success all these years.

Reid recently moved up to 5th in the all time wins rank for NFL head coaches. Since his first head coaching gig in 1999, the NFL has changed dramatically, but these adaptations haven’t caused trouble for Reid and his teams. In his 20+ years as a head coach he’s found success with a variety of quarterbacks, coordinators, and schemes. The only constant throughout Reid’s career has been change — his willingness to grow, learn, and adapt in numerous environments have been a key component to his sustained success over the years. Adaptability is a key trait that’s been passed down to many of Reid’s former assistants, but it’s yet to be determined if Nagy has acquired this same key skill. If the Chicago Bears want to get the most out of their current roster, it’s time for Nagy to show that he’s willing and able to adapt.

The biggest disappointment in the Bears quarterback change has been the lack of adjustments to the team’s offensive philosophy. Trubisky and Foles are completely different quarterbacks with completely different skillsets, but Nagy hasn’t appeared to adjust his play calling and game planning to reflect this. Unsurprisingly, the output on offense hasn’t changed much either as disappointment has been a frequent result. When the primary facilitator on your team changes, your schemes and how you utilize that position need to change as well if you want to find success.

Nagy deserves a bit of slack since he and Foles were paired up in the most bizarre/nonexistent offseason in NFL history. This made it difficult for the two to get on the same page early on, but as the season progresses Nagy needs to find a better way to cater to his highly paid QB’s strengths. The Bears have yet to have their bye week this season, but if nothing changes following the extra week of prep it may be time to sound the alarms on the head coach. Whether successful or not, Nagy needs to show that he’s willing to try something different. He can’t continue to think his existing scheme will succeed regardless of who’s under center and expect no consequences. It’s his job to adjust and put his quarterback in a position succeed, and so far he hasn’t been able to accomplish this.

This Bears team draws comparisons to other NFL teams of the past, but I think their best comparison comes from a different sport. When I think about this Bears team I’m reminded of the Mark Jackson led Golden State Warriors. This was a team was bursting at the seams with young talent ready to make the leap and become a serious contender in the NBA. Jackson had a .526% winning percentage during his short stint with the Warriors and his team’s win total improved each year he was in charge. Yet in 2014 the Warriors elected to move on from Jackson and hire Steve Kerr who quickly turned the team into one of the greatest dynasties in sports history

Usually when a coach is replaced in professional sports it’s after a long tenure of mediocrity (or worse) or an abysmal season where it’s obvious the guy doesn’t have what it takes to elevate his team. Jackson fit neither criteria, but the Warriors front office saw an opportunity for an upgrade and made a move anyway. It was a bold decision, but three championships later show it was the right one.

The 2020 Bears find themselves in a similar predicament. Their coach may be good, but like NBA teams, NFL teams do not want to settle for good. They want titles. It’s not easy to get rid of a guy with a career .625% winning percentage, but if a the Bears think their own Steve Kerr is out there somewhere, they can’t pass up the opportunity to snag him.

The meteoric rise of successful young NFL coaches like Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have to cause the Bears to think hard about what this team could look like with an elite coach of their own. Neither the Rams nor the 49ers have stars at the QB position, but they’ve made recent Super Bowl appearances due to their outstanding coaching and well balanced rosters. It’s easy to say the Bears biggest flaw is at the quarterback position, and it’s easy to speculate that if this team had selected Watson or Mahomes over Trubisky in 2017 they may have a title of their own by now. Yet no one argues the Bears should’ve axed John Fox, Nagy’s predecessor, one year earlier and hired McVay or Shanahan instead of waiting a year and bringing in Nagy.

There are multiple paths to success in the NFL. Having an elite quarterback may be the most obvious option, but there are numerous ways for a team to win a Super Bowl. If the Bears want to bring a title to Chicago anytime soon, they need to identify what’s more important for their team — an upgrade at quarterback or an upgrade at head coach? Maybe both are necessary, but in my opinion I think that this team’s biggest issues stem from an offensive-minded head coach being unable to produce even a league average offense with a former Super Bowl MVP under center. If the Bears see what I see, they’d be wise to make the move to find their own Steve Kerr sooner rather than later.