The Philadelphia Eagles and the Dilemma of Having an Elite Quarterback
The Philadelphia Eagles are entering one of the most pivotal offseasons in franchise history. Following a heartbreaking loss in Super Bowl LVII, Howie Roseman and the Eagles’ Front Office need to determine their next steps to remain in Super Bowl contention for years to come.
This time last year, Roseman taught a master class on how to handle the offseason. The Eagles made aggressive move after aggressive move, and this aggression helped create arguably the league’s best 53 man roster. Now Eagles’ fans are champing at the bit hoping to see that same aggression re-appear in 2023. The problem is, you can only remain aggressive for so long before that aggression turns into recklessness. Any team can continue pushing their chips to the center of the table and hope to one day hit the jackpot (I’m looking at you New Orleans…), but building a contender that can compete for a Super Bowl year in and year out requires careful planning, patience, and a bit of luck.
Eagles’ fans are hungry for the team to make a big move this offseason and do something… anything, to get their team back to the big game. Finding the balance between winning now and planning for the future is no easy task though. The Eagles have a ton of players set to hit free agency this offseason, many of whom played key roles in their Super Bowl run. Retaining all of these players simply isn’t an option due to the limitations of the salary cap, and deciding who to bring back will shape the future of this franchise for years to come.
According to Over the Cap, the Eagles currently rank 24th in the NFL in available cap space. This means they likely won’t be big spenders in free agency this year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be big spenders period.
Jalen Hurts is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, and the Eagles have made it very clear they want to get a deal done quickly. What that deal looks like remains to be seen, but most estimates believe it’ll be in the $45–50M per year range:
This deal is awesome for Hurts and 100% well deserved. Eagles fans should be excited about locking him up for a long term contract, but the cost of that contract goes far beyond the dollar value.
A quarterback playing at an elite level on a rookie contract is the closest thing NFL teams have to a cheat code, and signing Hurts to his extension means they’ll no longer have that benefit. In 2022, Hurts’ cap hit was just $4.8 million — that’s peanuts in the world of QB contracts. Building a championship caliber roster when you have a quarterback taking up an additional $40+ million against the cap compared to the year before is no easy task. Just take a look at the last 10 Super Bowls to see how prominent rookie QB contracts were:
That’s 9 out of the last 10 Super Bowls that’ve featured a rookie contract QB, and the Eagles are about to lose that edge.
There’s reason for optimism in Philadelphia though. We just saw the Chiefs go through this exact same exercise last offseason, and unfortunately for Eagle’s fans, Mahomes & Co. were able to rebound quickly.
That didn’t mean rebounding was an easy task though. The Chiefs had to make key sacrifices in order to accommodate Mahomes’ massive contract extension — most notably trading away Tyreek Hill. Extending Mahomes was a no brainer, but it forced Brett Veach and the Kansas City Front Office to get creative with their allocation of draft picks and cap space.
The Eagles will need to follow a similar blueprint this offseason. We’re already hearing rumblings of some of the potential cap casualties they’re going to suffer, many of which are coming on the defensive side of the ball. The secondary looks like it’s going to be hit the hardest where James Bradberry, Marcus Epps, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are all free agents. Now we’re hearing Darius Slay was given permission to seek a trade, and all of a sudden the Eagles are at risk of losing 4 key starters in their secondary. Both Bradberry and Slay will be on the wrong side of 30 when the season starts, and they may be looking for one last big paycheck in their NFL careers. You can’t blame them for that, but bringing them back to “keep the band together” likely isn’t the best long term move for the Eagles.
Of course this isn’t a new situation for Roseman. After their Super Bowl victory back in 2018, the Eagles made an effort to push for another title by bringing back some aging, expensive vetrans. The team got old in a hurry, and rapid decline ensued. Before they could blink, it was 2020 and they finished the season with a 4–11–1 record that led to the firing of beloved Head Coach Doug Pederson.
While that previous mistake may be concerning for Eagles fans, Roseman is one of the league’s savviest GMs. Going through that experience following the last Super Bowl was a valuable learning experience that he can take into this offseason. It’d be surprising to see him make the same mistake twice, and I’d imagine he’ll be sure to avoid being overly aggressive to ensure the Eagles don’t wind up looking like the Rams two years from now.
Ultimately, 2023 may be more of a re-tooling year than fans care to admit. Despite this, there’s still plenty of room for optimism surrounding this franchise.
While the Eagles may not be swimming in cap space anytime soon, they’ve got two 1st round picks this year and an extra 2nd rounder in 2024 from their trade with the Saints. Because of all the guys they’re likely losing in free agency this year, they’ll likely get a bunch of compensatory picks in next year’s draft as well. Much like the Chiefs, the Eagles have a great opportunity to use their surplus assets to re-stock the cupboard and find younger, cost-controlled replacements to keep the foundation of their team strong.
Even if they lose the cheat code that comes with Hurts’ cheap contract, the Eagles are happy to have him as their quarterback for years to come. Hurts has improved his game every year he’s been in the league, and he’ll need to keep improving to offset the massive contract he’s about to sign.
It’ll be harder for Roseman to build an All Star team around Hurts in future years, but that’s a trade off the Eagles are happy to make. If Hurts is the guy they think he is, it won’t be long before he leads them back to the Super Bowl once again.
If he does, he’ll unquestionably be worth every penny.
