The 49ers Are Drafting a QB in 2021, but it May Not Matter Until 2022
The San Francisco 49ers made headlines recently when they sacrificed 3 first round picks to move up from #12 in #3 in the 2021 draft via a trade with the Miami Dolphins. The move had NFL media buzzing and everyone quickly began firing off takes left and right about who won the trade, why each team made the move, and who the 49ers would ultimately select with their newly acquired pick. Everyone had different opinions about the move, but one thing was unanimously agreed upon — the 49ers were moving up to draft a quarterback.
After the initial takes came out, the next hot topic was what are the 49ers going to do with Jimmy Garoppolo? Trade rumors swirled immediately despite San Francisco adamantly denying they had any interest in moving on from their incumbent starting QB. In their first press conference following the trade, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch acknowledged that pick #3 would be used on a quarterback, but still declared the plan was to have Garoppolo serve as the team’s starter heading into 2021. Many dismissed this statement as nothing more than an attempt to create leverage in a potential trade market, but I for one believe their statement was genuine.
Despite an injury plagued 2020 that led to an underwhelming 6–10 record, the 49ers are a team who’s ready to contend for a Super Bowl right away. They have superstars at multiple positions, one of the best head coaches in the game, and a well balanced roster that can win beat opponents in a variety of ways. Handing a rookie the keys to their starting quarterback spot is risky business, and although Garoppolo isn’t the most exciting option under center, it’s very likely he’s the team’s best bet for this upcoming season.
When you look under the hood at how this team is built, the situation they’re in, and how rookie QBs perform in the NFL, holding on to Garoppolo for (at least) one more year starts to make a lot of sense.
Following an impressive 5–0 debut season in San Fransisco, Garoppolo generated a lot of buzz in the Bay Area and quickly became viewed as the team’s savior at quarterback. A torn ACL in 2018 meant the Garoppolo hype had to wait another year, but in 2019 Garoppolo and the 49ers officially had their coming out party. The 49ers went 13–3 that year, good for first place in the NFC, and earned themselves a trip to the Super Bowl.
All was good for Garoppolo and the 49ers until the 1:40 mark of Super Bowl LIV. It was 3rd and 10 and the 49ers were trailing the Chiefs by 4 when Garoppolo missed a golden opportunity to put the 49ers on top for good. Emmanuel Sanders had gotten behind the Chiefs defense for a would be touchdown, but the ball was overthrown and ultimately fell incomplete. This overthrow occurred in one of the most important moments of the game, and if the throw was on target it could’ve meant San Fransisco was hoisting the Lombardi trophy instead of Kansas City. Many pointed a finger at Garoppolo and viewed the missed throw to Sanders as the primary reason the 49ers ultimately came up short.
Over a year later the image of Garoppolo overthrowing Sanders remains fresh in the minds of 49ers fans. Despite him being under center for the preceding playoff victories and all 13 of the team’s regular season wins, one throw seemingly soured an entire city’s perception towards the quarterback they were praising not long before.
Although he’s no longer a fan favorite, it’s hard to deny Garoppolo has been an impressive signal caller during his time in San Fransisco. Since being acquired via trade in 2017 he’s gone 22–8 in 30 regular season starts and helped turn the 49ers into a force to be reckoned with. Despite his impressive win-loss record he doesn’t come without faults, and his biggest fault has been his ability to stay on the field. The torn ACL in 2018, paired with an ankle injury this past season have led to him missing 23 games over the past three seasons.
Although he’s has been successful when healthy, many attribute the 49ers success to Garoppolo’s circumstances rather than his own ability. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive genius paired with a loaded roster make the 49ers quarterback job a dream situation for anyone lining up under center. While Garoppolo has routinely capitalized on his favorable situation, there aren’t many people out there claiming he’s elevated the play of his supporting cast.
As QB-friendly as San Fransisco is, the guys serving as Garoppolo’s backups haven’t been nearly as impressive when their numbers have gotten called (which has been quite often due to Garoppolo’s health). Since 2018 San Fransisco’s primary backups have been Nick Mullens — a guy who went undrafted in 2017 — and C.J. Beathard — a late 3rd round pick in 2018. Many think that any NFL quarterback can step up and succeed in Kyle Shanahan’s system, but the numbers over the past three years tell a different story:
The sample sizes above are relatively small, but the data here should tell you Garoppolo is at the very least a competent NFL starter who’s capable of making the most of a good situation. I realize I’m not excaclty giving a glowing endorsement here, but with another superb supporting cast around him in 2021, competence may be enough for the 49ers to be serious contenders once again. As much as the city of San Fransisco hopes pick #3 can come in right away and be more than simply competent, relying on a rookie to lead this team to contention right away is a risky move.
Whether it’s Alabama’s Mac Jones, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, whoever the 3rd overall pick is will come into the league with sky high expectations. However the historical success of rookie QBs indicates it’s unlikely this new QB meets these expectations in right away. The 49ers have their sights set on a Super Bowl in the near future, and having a rookie QB under center would make this a tall order. Not once in the history of the NFL has a rookie QB led his team to a Super Bowl, let alone won the game.
It’s hard to envision this rookie coming into the league and putting up numbers right away that top Garoppolo’s production in a 49ers uniform. Although rookie QBs have made a more seamless transition to the NFL in recent years, their comfort levels under center don’t always translate to wins. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa — the top three rookies drafted in 2020 — all started for teams that missed the playoffs last year despite the league expanding the playoff field to 7 teams. The story was the same in 2019 with Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins — none of whom have made the playoffs in either of their first two seasons. If I’m Kyle Shanahan or John Lynch, I’m not wasting a year of George Kittle or Nick Bosa’s primes simply because I want to see what a rookie can do.
It’s becoming less common for teams to groom a rookie behind a veteran to start out their careers. Not too long ago the playbook for a young QB was to sit on the bench for a year or two, learn the team’s offense, and acclimate to the speed of the NFL in practice and on the sidelines during game day. Although this is becoming a less popular strategy, it may still be an effective one. The last four NFL MVP’s — Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady — were all quarterbacks who started their careers on the bench behind an incumbent starter. If you think the 49ers, a team who didn’t even start Garoppolo immediately after trading for him, are afraid to go this route, it’s time to think again.
The patience approach for the 49ers makes the most sense in 2021 both for the sake of the team’s short term outlook and for the potential development of their new rookie down the line. Throwing a rookie into the starting lineup right away is a high risk move, and could very easily backfire if he winds up struggling out of the gates. As much as we all want to assume success for incoming NFL players, we can’t ignore the fact that not all draft picks work out. There’s a non-zero chance Jones, Lance, or Fields comes into 49ers camp and stinks up the joint. Keeping Garoppolo in house helps hedge against this possibility, and although this isn’t what San Fransisco is hoping for, preparing for the possibilty could wind up being a valuable move.
So what is it that drove San Fransisco to thinking an upgrade at quarterback was not only necessary, but worth the cost of three first round picks? Despite Garoppolo’s impressive W/L record, the passing numbers he’s put up haven’t been eye popping by any stretch of the imagination. In 2019 when the team reached the Super Bowl, he was just 19th in yards per game and 14th in touchdowns per game. However what’s more telling about his play style may have been his 6.7 Average Depth of Target (ADoT) which ranked him 2nd lowest out of qualified passers according to PFF. His low ADoT indicates he rarely pushed the ball down field and didn’t force defenses to respect his arm strength and ability to beat them over the top. With an offense as potent as San Fransisco’s, adding a quarterback that can stretch the field and make the defense account for every blade of grass could open up Kyle Shanahan’s playbook and take this offense to another level.
Although it’s no guarantee that the incoming rookie will be an immediate success, one thing that’s almost a given is they should be more willing to push the ball down the field. All three of Jones (8.3), Lance (10.7), or Fields (10.7) have higher career ADoT than Garoppolo, with Lance and Fields posting numbers that indicate they possess true gunslinger mentalities. By bringing in a quarterback that can open up every level of the field, this 49ers team is hoping their offense can return to, and even surpass, their 2019 form on a consistent basis.
After watching their division rival Rams make a move with similar intentions by upgrading from Jared Goff to Matt Stafford, the 49ers decided making a bold move of their own was necessary to keep up with the arms race going on in the NFC West. In a division that features Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and now Stafford at quarterback, San Fransisco determined Garoppolo wasn’t going to be enough to keep up and made an upgrade of their own.
The 49ers have high expectations for their team in 2021 and beyond, and if these expectations are met they wont be selecting in the top half of the draft again anytime soon. The cost to move up from a pick in the 20s into the top 3 is far greater than moving up just 9 spots from 12. The 49ers front office saw an opportunity to make a move now and opted to swing for the fences even though dividends may not be paid for a few years.
The price paid for the #3 overall pick shouldn’t affect the strategy the team uses finding success both in the short and long term. Giving this rookie a year to grow under Jimmy Garoppolo’s wing, acclimate to the NFL, and learn Kyle Shanahan’s complex offense is the best route for the team both now and down the line. You have a roster — including the quarterback — that possesses the postseason experience and talent to make a title run right away. Ignoring the potential downside of leaning on a rookie would be malpractice for a front office that’s otherwise made savvy moves in recent years. In the NFL, team’s typically have championship windows that close quickly, however if the 49ers hold onto Garoppolo and manage to hit on the #3 pick, they’ll be one of the rare teams that are built both for the present and the long term.
The saying often goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have a quarterback. The 49ers may be one of the few exceptions to this rule.
