Super Bowl LV Preview
“This is the biggest game Patrick Mahomes will ever play in for the rest of his career… It’s the only way to catch Tom Brady. He has to win this game. If he loses this game, he cannot catch Tom Brady, in my opinion.”
-Tony Romo
The above quote from Tony Romo perfectly encapsulates just how important this Super Bowl is to the history of the NFL. As sports fans we never got to witness what would happen if Michael Jordan and LeBron James squared off in the NBA Finals, but this Super Bowl is the NFL equivalent of that hypothetical matchup.
Tom Brady is universally viewed as the NFL’s GOAT, but many view Mahomes as a potential next in line is because of the eye-popping numbers he produces and the immense success he’s seen so early in his career. He already boasts better passing numbers in most categories than Brady on a per game basis, and he only seems to be getting better each year. Take a look at the table below to see a side by side comparison of each QBs career numbers on a per game basis:
However even with Mahomes’ edge in the statistics, the reason Brady is the unquestioned GOAT is because it requires two hands to show off all of his Super Bowl rings. He knows how to win games when it matters most and he’s perfectly content doing so with or without eye popping statistics. This is the guy who won a Super Bowl while his offense scored just 13 points, but he’s also the guy who lost one while throwing for over 500 yards. We all know he’ll take the 13 point victory over a 500+ yard loss 11 times out of 10.
As it currently stands Brady has 6 Super Bowl victories and is on a mission to obtain his 7th. Meanwhile Mahomes earned his 1st ring in 2020 when his Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV and many predict he will be contending for titles for many years to come.
Mahomes’ career has been off to a red hot start, but he’s still got a long road ahead of him if he wants to catch Brady in terms of legacy. He’s just 25 years old, but even if he plays to Brady’s current age of 43 he’d still have to win a title every 3 years on average just to tie Brady in that category. A loss for Mahomes on Sunday would make that challenge even more difficult while simultaneously making him 0–2 against Brady in the playoffs and adding a blemish to his own Super Bowl record. This game could be a huge indication of whether or not Mahomes is viewed as the next Brady, or maybe just another Aaron Rodgers — a QB who puts up incredible numbers and makes throws that only seem possible in a Harry Potter book, but doesn’t have the postseason hardware to be considered the greatest to ever play the game.
As far as legacy games go, this might be the most important game in NFL history. Will we witness Tom Brady cement himself as the GOAT, or will Mahomes lead the Chiefs to victory and take another step towards claiming that title for himself?
Although this game’s historical context is headlined by two superstar quarterbacks, the Chiefs and the Bucs are far from one man bands. Many expect this game to be a high scoring affair as both QBs are surrounded by a bevy of electrifying playmakers. In their previous matchup Tyreek Hill went for over 200 yards in the first quarter (!) before the Bucs realized double teaming the superstar wideout was a good idea. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce has eclipsed over 100 yards in each of the Chiefs playoff games as he’s gobbled up everything in the short and intermediate areas of the field as defenses have (unsuccessfully) sold out to prevent Hill from beating them deep.
For the Bucs, their offense has provided Brady with arguably the best supporting cast of his career. He has three Pro Bowl wide receivers to throw to in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and the resurgent Antonio Brown. While at tight end he has future Fall of Famer and Rob Gronkowski — arguably Tom Brady’s all time favorite target. He has great support in the backfield thanks to Ronald Jones, who would’ve eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season if he played 16 games, and former top 5 draft pick Leonard Fournette. To top it all off, all of these players will be operating behind a top 5 offensive line according to PFF.
Both of these offenses are capable of putting up points at rates that are considered some of the best in the league, and it’ll be a tough task for either defense to slow down the opposition. This game may come down to which defense can force the opposing quarterback into making a critical mistake or two in the games pivotal moments. We’ve heard the narrative before that the best way to beat Tom Brady is to get after him with a pass rush, and the recipe for besting Mahomes’ should be no different. You can’t expect to shut down these offenses, but if your own offense can put up points of their own and force the opposition to keep up, a few big plays from your defense can turn the tide of the game in your favor.
The offensive line advantage the Bucs possess may wind up being this games deciding factor. Although line play doesn’t garner the highlights and the headlines, the saying often goes that the game is won and lost in the trenches and the Bucs should have a sizeable advantage in that area on both sides of the ball. According to those same PFF rankings, the Chiefs had the 11th best offensive line on the year, and that was before losing former #1 overall pick and starting left tackle Eric Fisher due to injury in the conference championship.
Meanwhile on defense the Bucs ability to generate pressure and make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks has been on of their biggest strengths. This defense eats, sleeps, and breathes pressure as they have the highest blitz rate (42.3%) in the league and love to get after the quarterback. Even with Mahomes under center, if he and the Chiefs offensive line are getting harassed all game it could spell trouble for the Kansas City offense. In true next man up fashion, the Chiefs offensive line is going to have to step up and get some Super Bowl caliber play from some unheralded names.
On the flip side, the Chiefs’ pass rush has ranked in the bottom third of the league on the season, and as I mentioned earlier they’ll be going up against a very formidable offensive line. They’ll have a hard time winning one on one matchups, and relying on scheme to outsmart Tom Brady and manufacture pressure seems even less likely. Although this defense doesn’t wow you with statistics, they’re battle tested and have a tendency to step up when it matters most. Don’t be surprised to see a guy like Tyrann Mattheiu or Chris Jones make a huge play when it matters most.
Even though it appears on paper as though the Bucs have an edge in the trenches, crazy things tend to happen in the Super Bowl. Forcing Tom Brady into turning the ball over is no easy task, but just two weeks ago we saw him throw 3 picks against Green Bay in the conference championship and he’ll have a hard time besting the Chiefs if that happens again. Meanwhile, although the Chiefs offensive line is banged up, if there’s anyone that can overcome those odds it’s Mahomes and his litany of explosive playmakers on offense. I expect both offenses to move the ball with relative ease in this game, but a few key sacks and turnovers will ultimately decide the outcome. The numbers indicate Tampa Bay should have the edge in generating these plays as they rank 6th in the league in both takeaways and sacks on the season and they’re going up against an offensive line that’s not at full strength. However in a game where the stakes are highest, anyone can step up and make a big play at an opportune time and swing the outcome of the game, and both teams have playmakers capable of doing just that.
The Chiefs have been a heavy Super Bowl favorite all year long and it’ll take a large effort to prevent them from repeating. Yet when the lights shine brightest it’s hard to pick against Tom Brady. Even at 43 years old the man is on a mission to continue widening the legacy gap between himself and the field, and calling him an underdog in this one will only add fuel to his fire. Meanwhile Mahomes is hungry to add on to his own legacy and knows he needs to win this game or risk the GOAT conversation continuing to be a one man list. This is going to be a Super Bowl for the ages, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
