Re-Ranking the 2020 QB Draft Class
When an NFL team drafts a quarterback, their entire fanbase gets a sense of optimism injected straight into their veins.
Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and it’s typically bad teams in need of new life who are given the chance to draft the best ones. The hope for these struggling franchises is once the new guy arrives, he’ll solve many of the team’s problems and turn into the most coveted asset in the league — a franchise quarterback.
It’s probably too early to start passing judgment on the quarterbacks selected in the 2021 draft, but for the four current starters who were drafted in 2020, we’ve seen a big enough sample size. Based on what we’ve seen in their first year and a half in the league, let’s analyze and re-rank Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts accordingly.
1. Justin Herbert: Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert was the 6th overall pick and the 3rd quarterback drafted in 2020. If Commissioner Goodell announced a redraft that had to take place tomorrow, there’s little doubt Herbert would be the first player selected.
Listed at 6'6" 237 lbs, Herbert pairs ideal size with great athleticism, but his arm talent is what sets him apart from the rest of the players on this list. He possesses a cannon of an arm capable of firing missiles into tight windows, but he’s just as capable of throwing a ball with perfect touch to avoid the reach of opposing defenders. This combination of talents is rare, and it allows Herbert to make throws that should only be possible in a Harry Potter book:
Plays like the one above are what make Herbert so special. His pocket presence and mobility allow him to casually evade pressure, and then his arm does the rest.
The ball placement here is perfect. Somehow, while on the run Herbert places this ball right in Keenan Allen’s lap despite the suffocating coverage surrounding his target.
If you’re a defensive back, I’m not sure what you can do against this guy. You have to be perfect on every snap because if you give Herbert any sort of a window, he’ll find a way to squeeze a football in there.
At the end of the day though, if there’s one trait you want from your quarterback more than anything else, it’s the ability to lead your team to victory with the game on the line. Herbert’s doing exactly that in year two, and in just ten games this season he already has five game-winning drives (good for most in the league).
It’s more than just his physical traits that are leading to Herbert’s success, he’s one of the few guys in the league who truly has the whole package. He’s shown an increased command and understanding of the game in his second year, and it appears everything is starting to slow down for the young signal caller.
The list of quarterbacks you’d rather have on your side than Justin Herbert in crunch time is short, and with each passing week it’s only getting shorter.
2. Jalen Hurts: Philadelphia Eagles
Yeah, I said it. Jalen Hurts is the second best quarterback in the 2020 class.
Hurts is the only starting quarterback from this group who wasn’t selected in the first round (2nd round, 53rd overall pick), but if the draft were conducted again today it’s hard to envision him falling outside the top 5 picks.
The first thing that comes to mind with Hurts is his freakish athleticism and rushing ability. He’s dynamic with the ball in his hands, but simply being a good ball carrier isn’t why he’s vaulted up to number two on this list. Each and every week he’s shown improvement as a passer, and he has an uncanny ability to avoid making the same mistake twice.
Through 11 games this year, Hurts has just 6 turnovers (5 interceptions and 1 lost fumble) compared to 21 total touchdowns (13 passing and 8 rushing). He’s largely played mistake-free football this year, and some of the worrisome tendencies he showed at the beginning of his career have slowly started evaporating.
Some of the biggest knocks on Hurts coming out of college surrounded his ability to operate as a pocket passer in the NFL. Here are a few of the negatives listed on one of his scouting profiles.
“Quick to drop his eyes when pressure mounts”
“Needs to get better at trusting his pocket”
“More likely to void pocket than climb, scan, and throw from it”
Early-season Jalen Hurts’ displayed these tendencies often which raised questions about his ability to stick around in the NFL. However, his willingness to work on his craft, improve every week, and respond to coaching have led to plays like the one below becoming commonplace in recent weeks:
This is just one play, but it perfectly encapsulates how much Hurts has grown since he was drafted back in April of 2020.
He throws a beautiful ball to Goedert here, but it’s everything that happens before the ball leaves his hand that makes this play so impressive. As pressure starts to build he trusts his protection, keeps his eyes downfield, steps up swiftly in the pocket, and finds the open guy. This is textbook quarterback play from the pocket, and it’s coming from a guy who just two short years ago was criticized for his inability to play the game in this fashion.
It’s not just Hurts’ recent performance that has him second on this list, it’s the upward trajectory he’s currently headed on as well.
The guy starting against the Giants on Sunday isn’t the same guy that started against the Falcons back in week one. Hurts is getting better and better with each passing week, and he’s captaining an Eagles’ offense that’s really come alive in recent weeks.
There are still weaknesses in Hurts’ game, and he’s probably still the least polished passer on this list. At the end of the day though, the guy is showing traits that are hard to measure with statistics, and with each passing week he’s silencing more and more of his critics.
There was a lot of drama surrounding the Eagles’ quarterback room this offseason, but early signs indicate they made the right call rolling with Hurts.
3. Joe Burrow: Cincinnati Bengals
After being selected first overall in the 2020 draft, a gruesome knee injury ended Joe Burrow’s rookie season prematurely. Since returning to the field in 2021, Burrow has looked capable of being the franchise quarterback the Bengals drafted him to be.
The simplest way to measure Burrow’s impact this year is by looking at the Bengals’ ability to put points on the scoreboard. In 2020, they averaged a mere 19.4 points per game, but with a healthy Burrow in 2021, that number’s all the way up to 26.8.
One of the more impressive parts of Burrow’s game thus far has been his ability to operate amongst chaos. Despite being sacked 28 times this year (3rd most in the NFL) Burrow’s been the 5th most accurate passer measured by completion percentage (68.3%). When watching him play, he’s often shifting around within the pocket, avoiding pressure, and firing strikes to his receivers:
The Jets bring a blitz in the above play, but Burrow escapes to his left, gets outside the pocket, and delivers an absolutely perfect ball to Tyler Boyd to move the sticks.
Ball placement like this is commonplace for Burrow, and he’s quickly establishing himself as one of the more accurate passers in the league. He’s constantly putting the ball exactly where Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins want it, and it’s rare to see his receivers break stride when hauling in one of his balls. His precision paired with a nuanced understanding of his receiver’s play styles allows Burrow to set his guys up for success after hauling in one of his passes, and he’s second in the league in Yards After Catch per Completion as a result.
His extreme accuracy has him playing like some of the game’s greatest facilitators, but at times overconfidence in his arm can be his detriment. Through 10 games, Burrow already has 11 interceptions (good for 2nd most in the league), and if he wants to take his game and the Bengals to the next level, he’ll need to find a way to reduce that number.
While Burrow’s no longer viewed as the top guy in his class, he’d still go top-5 if the draft were to happen again tomorrow. There’s always a place for accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, and Burrow possesses a skill set that should set him up for long-term success.
4. Tua Tagovailoa: Miami Dolphins
The 5th overall pick from the 2020 draft’s NFL career got off to a rocky start.
Tua Tagovailoa entered the league coming off a devastating hip injury, he rotated in and out of the Dolphins’ starting lineup in his rookie season, he’s had three offensive coordinators in just two years, every Deshaun Watson trade rumor has his name attached to it, he’s missed time due to injury, and the list goes on and on.
Despite all the anarchy surrounding him, Tua’s shown traits that indicate he can be a successful starter in the NFL. He doesn’t play the sexiest brand of football out there, but his last few weeks in particular have shown a lot of promise.
Like Burrow, Tua’s best trait is his accuracy. He currently sits 7th in the NFL with a 68.0% completion percentage, and his ability to process what’s in front of him, get through his reads quickly, and deliver an accurate pass on time is what his game is built around:
In the above clip, it looks as if the Dolphins are running an RPO (run-pass option) play. Tua likely has the option to hand the ball off to the running back here, but based on how the defense is reacting, he instead opts to keep it and fire a quick strike to Mike Gesicki for a gain of 26.
Plays like this are the bread and butter of Tua’s game. He’s a decisive decision maker, and once he makes the proper read he’s capable of delivering the ball on time with accuracy. Despite only having started 6 games this year, Tua ranks third in the NFL in yards gained on RPO plays.
The downside of this play style is it puts a bit of a ceiling on the Dolphins’ offense. Tua hasn’t had many “wow” moments this year, and he’s only eclipsed the 300-yard mark once this season. It’s rare for him to challenge a defense vertically by pushing the ball downfield, and his average Intended Air Yards is just 7.1 (29th in the league).
Just because Tua finds himself last on this list doesn’t mean he’s destined for failure in the NFL. He’s still just 23 years old, and his accuracy and timing are traits that every NFL team covets. Though he likely wouldn’t be a top-5 pick if the draft were conducted again tomorrow, it’s hard to envision him falling outside the first round entirely because the strengths in his game are highly coveted by NFL teams.
