NFL Revisionist History
When Josh Allen first entered the NFL out of the University of Wyoming in 2018 many thought he was destined for failure. He wasn’t particularly productive in college, had sloppy mechanics, and completed less than 60% of his passes while playing against uninspiring competition in the Mountain West Conference. This didn’t stop the Buffalo Bills from taking a chance on the young QB as the team used the 7th overall pick to select Allen on draft night.
Buffalo chose to look past Allen’s negative traits and instead focus on the incredible upside he possessed. He had a cannon of an arm, ideal size for the position, and an athletic profile that could make NFL tight ends jealous. The team knew that getting the most out of Allen would require patience and a coaching staff capable of molding the young prospect into an NFL star, but Buffalo believed they had what it takes to deliver on these requirements.
So far in year three of his NFL career, Allen is proving that the Bills were wise to take a chance on him. Early in the 2020 season Allen’s name was near the top of the MVP race, and the Bills currently sit in first place in the AFC East — a division that has been dominated by the Patriots for the past two decades.
Allen was fortunate enough to land with an organization that was patient enough to let him develop on a timeline that he was comfortable with. Early in his career the Bills had leaned on a dominant defense and a run-heavy offense where Allen was never asked to do too much. In 2020 Allen’s growth has given the team enough confidence to hand the keys of the offense over to him entirely and the results have been fantastic. By putting Allen in a situation where he could succeed at his own pace they’ve been able to let the young quarterback blossom into one of the NFL’s best.
Unfortunately, not every team has as much patience as the Bills have shown with Allen, and unsurprisingly the results are often not as positive. For every Josh Allen there are multiple quarterbacks who fall in the “bust” half of the boom or bust equation. Allen’s recent success has caused me to ponder what the NFL would look like today if a few more of these busts wound up being booms. Let’s take a trip back in time, adjust a few key variables, and witness what an alternate NFL universe would look like if a few more highly drafted QBs turned into stars.
“With the second pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Washington Redskins select, Robert Griffin III, quarterback Baylor.” These words announced by commissioner Roger Goodell at the 2012 draft were quickly followed by a roar of cheers and chants of “RG3! RG3!”. Redskins fans that made the trip to New York were ecstatic as they officially welcomed their new quarterback to the NFL.
Coming into the 2012 season Redskins fans were giddy about the debut of their rookie signal caller. Many were hoping to witness this generation’s Michael Vick wearing their team’s colors and expectations were sky high for the rookie.
In week 1 Griffin exploded onto the scene as he earned NFC offensive player of the week honors — the first time a rookie had claimed this award in his debut game — for his impressive performance in a victory over the New Orleans Saints. Griffin’s 360 total yards and 2 touchdowns had fans across the league amazed and opponents worried. His stellar play would continue throughout the rest of his rookie campaign as he led the Redskins to an NFC East title and was awarded NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
The Redskins knew that when they drafted Griffin he came with a bit of an injury risk. His frame was more representative of his skills as a track star rather than an NFL quarterback, and many questioned if he was durable enough to stick around in the NFL. When Griffin suffered a knee sprain in week 14 against the Ravens, team doctors determined it was in Griffin’s best interest to shut it down for the remainder of the year and preserve his health for the long run.
The playoff birth earned by Griffin would have to be quarterbacked by another rookie signal caller, 4th round selection Kirk Cousins. Cousins would go on to win the remaining regular season games for the Skins and inspire hope for a playoff run, but ultimately the playoff success didn’t follow. With just under two minutes remaining, the Redskins were down 28–24 and Cousins threw a costly interception right into the hands of Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman that effectively ended the season for Washington. After the game the trash talking Sherman was quoted as saying the following when asked about Cousins:
“There’s a reason that dude’s a backup”
After an entire off season of rehabbing his knee and working on his craft, Griffin was determined to make year two even better than his first. He would wind up coming just short as he lead his team to a 9–7 record as the team just barely missed the playoffs. The next two years produced similar results as the Redskins won 11 games in 2014 but were bounced in round one of the playoffs. In 2015 they went 8–8 and didn’t qualify for the postseason once again. Something had to change to get this Redskins team over the top, and that change was right around the corner.
In 2015, Washington head coach Mike Shanahan elected to retire from the NFL, and it didn’t take Washington long to find his replacement. They elected to promote their current offensive coordinator, Mike’s son Kyle, to head coach. Many believed Kyle was the mastermind of the team’s offensive success with Griffin, and now with even more control of the team the hope was the younger Shanahan could get the team over the hump. In 2015 the Redskins unleashed a team philosophy unlike any seen in the NFL before — they incorporated game plans typically reserved for the college ranks and called plays that catered to Griffin’s one of a kind skill set. The results were astounding. In year one of the Kyle Shanahan era, Griffin broke the single season quarterback rushing record with just a hair under 1200 yards on the ground, finished second in MVP voting to Cam Newton, and lead the Redskins to a 13–3 record earning the 2 seed in the NFC.
After their first round bye, a rematch with the Seattle Seahawks awaited the Redskins in round two. Eager to get his chance to play the team he was forced to watch defeat his own back in 2012, Griffin played phenomenally as he bested Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in a shootout victory that finished with a final score of 38–32. In the NFC Championship game, a battle with Cam Newton and the 15–1 Panthers awaited Washington and Griffin was determined to prove that it should have been him claiming the NFL MVP honors. Once again he led the offense to another stellar performance and a 41–30 victory would send the Redskins to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1992.
Washington found themselves matched up with the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Denver housed the league’s best defense, but Kyle Shanahan was determined to find a chink in the armor and he was able to develop a game plan that allowed Washington to jump out to an early 28–3 halftime lead. Following the intermission, the Broncos forced a fumble on Washington’s first possession and returned it to the end zone for six. In this very moment all momentum in the game appeared to have shifted in Denver’s favor, and Denver’s halftime adjustments thwarted Griffin and the offense for the remainder of the game. Washington’s 25 point lead slowly started to disappear and Peyton Manning would go on to lead the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history in his final game as a pro. Washington tragically fell to Denver by a final score of 28–30.
The NFL is a copycat league, and the recent success of Griffin and the Redskins caught the eye of another NFL franchise hoping to get more production out of their young mobile quarterback.
The Cleveland Browns had just finished the 2015 season with a disappointing 3–13 record. The team was starting to lose patience with disappointing 2nd year quarterback Johnny Manziel, but they wanted to give the young QB a fresh start and one last chance with a new coaching staff. The Browns elected to fire head coach Mike Pettine in the offseason and replace him with Washington Offensive Coordinator Sean McVay. It was a bold move as this decision would make McVay the youngest coach in NFL history at only 29 years old. The team knew they needed to get more production out of the quarterback position, and they were willing to take a chance on the young McVay to help get more out of Manziel and the offense.
The Browns were able to make strides in year one with McVay at the helm as the team was able to double their win total and finish with a record of 6–10 in a tough AFC North. Manziel showed drastic improvement as a passer under his new head coach and his success seemed to translate off the field as well. The quarterback showed a much improved sense of maturity under McVay’s lead and was developing into a true professional.
Many expected McVay to feature Manziel heavily as a runner in his offense as the Skins did with Griffin. Instead the new head coach showcased an innovative offense that heavily featured motions, running the ball with receivers, and a deadly play action passing game. Manziel would go on to complete over 65% of his passes in his first year under McVay, and for the first time in a long time the team was inspiring hope for the Cleveland fan base.
The Browns were feeling confident in the 2017 offseason so the team elected to take a risk in the NFL Draft. The team held the 7th overall selection and chose to draft Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey with the pick. Many pundits questioned the decision to take a running back so early, but the Browns knew they needed to give Manziel a go to playmaker, and they were hoping McCaffrey could be the guy.
The McCaffrey-Manziel relationship proved to big a huge boost to the Browns overall team success as the elite running back constantly drew the attention of opposing defenders. Manziel saw a dip in his overall passing numbers as the team’s offensive philosophy became more balanced, but his efficiency numbers went through the roof. The constant threat of McCaffrey out of the backfield paired with an emergence from second year deep threat Corey Coleman meant opposing defenses had to cover every blade of grass on the field in order to stop the Browns well balanced attack. McCaffrey would wind up being awarded with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award as the dual threat back accumulated over 1800 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns in his debut season. The new look Browns offense would wind up carrying the team to an impressive 13–3 record claiming their first AFC North title since 1989.
Cleveland took this uber-efficient offense into the post season as they dismantled the 6th seeded Jaguars following their first round bye. Jacksonville possessed the leagues best defense, but Cleveland had no problem giving them fits as they cruised to victory in a 27–9 win. However Cleveland’s luck quickly ran out in the AFC Championship Game in the team’s matchup with New England. The genius of Bill Belichick proved too much for Manziel and McVay as the legendary coach’s defensive was able to erase McCaffrey from the game plan forcing Manziel and the Browns to try and win through the air. The young QB wasn’t quite up to the task and following his 3rd interception of the game Manziel suffered a melt down. He was ejected from the game after striking New England defensive back Stephon Gilmore with his helmet and the Browns would ultimately fall to the Patriots by a final score of 23–6.
For the first time since 1965, the New York Giants possessed the first pick in the NFL draft. New York had to make a tough decision by choosing between selecting a player that could help the aging Eli Manning make one last push, or building for the future and snagging Manning’s heir to the throne. New York had just hired head coach Frank Reich away from their division rival Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants were impressed by Reich’s ability to produce a high flying offense with backup quarterback Kirk Cousins running the show in the team’s redent Super Bowl run. After a bit of back and forth, the Giants’ front office determined pairing Reich with an elite quarterback prospect was the right move for the long term.The Giants didn’t overthink the pick and selected the player many viewed as the best prospect in the draft. Coming out of USC, Sam Darnold was the perfect fit to be the future of the position for the Giants — he had pinpoint accuracy, elite instincts, and had all the intangibles a team could possibly ask for. Although Darnold was widely viewed as an NFL ready prospect, the team still planned to let Manning remain the starter for one more year.
The Manning led Giants put together an unimpressive season in 2018 that caused many to wonder why Darnold wasn’t inserted into the starting lineup. Reich stayed firm in his decision to stick with the veteran QB, much to the chagrin of star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. who requested a midseason trade but was denied his wish. When the offseason came about, Beckham once again requested a trade, but the Giants weren’t willing to deal the team’s best offensive player right before their young QB was ready to make his debut.
Heading into year two of the Reich regime, the Giants were ready to take a major step forward. Known for developing great relationships with his players, Reich worked to develop a bond with Beckham over the offseason and the two entered 2019 determined to put their new starting quarterback in a position to succeed. The year on the bench proved to be valuable for Darnold, and in his first game as a starter he showed an excellent understanding of the offense and seemed well prepared for his first real test against an NFL defense. In his first game as starter, the young QB relied heavily on his playmaking wide receiver as Beckham caught 11 balls for 180 yards and a touchdown in a victory over the division rival Dallas Cowboys. After the game Darnold was asked about how serving as a backup in his rookie year help prepare him for year two:
“To be honest the time was really valuable. I know a lot of people wanted me to start right away, but in those first couple of practices and preseason games I was seeing ghosts out there. The NFL is intimidating, but Coach Reich worked with me, got me to settle down, and helped me use my eyes to put me in a situation to succeed. Coming in to year two, there were no more ghosts”
Beckham, happy with his new quarterback’s eagerness to target him would go on to have a career year where he would accumulate over 1800 yards, 14 touchdowns, and a record breaking 147 catches. The Giants’ team success didn’t quite match Beckham’s individual accomplishments as the team finished a pedestrian 7–9. However there was little doubt within the organization that the team had the building blocks necessary to develop into a contender in the coming years.
So far in 2020 Darnold has impressed even further as he has the Giants sitting at 6–3, just one game behind the 7–2 Washington Pigskins and reigning MVP Robert Griffin III. The matchups between Darnold and Griffin have always been exciting, and the two will continue to duke it out for titles in the always competitive NFC East for many years to come.
