How the Cleveland Browns are Using Analytics to Buck the NFL’s Passing Trend
In the second iteration of ESPN’s NFL Analytics Survey, the Cleveland Browns were named 2021’s most analytically advanced team.
Since taking over Cleveland’s General Manager job back in 2020, Andrew Berry has made a point to heavily emphasize analytics in all aspects of his football team. From coaching tactics, to player scouting, to sport science techniques, analytics are playing a huge role in multiple facets of the Browns’ organization.
For a franchise that’s been a bit of a laughingstock over the past few decades, Berry’s presence has been a welcome change. In his first year on the job, the Browns made the playoffs for the first time since 2002, and in general, the arrow appears to be pointing up in Cleveland.
The way this front office has utilized analytics has been an interesting example of innovative team building in the NFL.
While Cleveland has become one of the more forward-thinking franchises in recent years, stylistically it looks as if they’re playing a brand of football reserved for an older era of the NFL. Their offense is built around a punishing rushing attack, and the two stars shining brightest on that side of the ball are running backs — a position that’s become devalued in recent years.
Under Berry’s management, Cleveland is finding a unique way to blend together modern analytical techniques with an old-school, smash-mouth brand of football. The results thus far have been promising, and the best part is, this is only the beginning.
One of the first moves Berry made when he took over was a bit of a head-scratcher.
In 2020, the Browns signed running back Kareem Hunt to a 2 year, $13.25 million contract extension. Hunt’s contract didn’t have a massive impact on the Browns’ salary cap, but it’s a large sum of money for a team that already had Nick Chubb under contract.
Then just one year later, Berry struck again when the Browns handed Chubb a 3 year, $36 million contract of his own.
Spending top dollar on a running back is a Cardinal sin in the analytics community, yet the most analytically-inclined manager opted to do it not once, but twice!
The idea of investing substantial capital — either draft picks or cap space — into a running back has been frowned upon for years now. Some claim the position is a dying breed in the pass-happy NFL. Others simply fear the rapid decline in productivity that tends to surface once a back accumulates a certain number of touches.
Eventually, the pendulum starts to swing too far and the position ultimately becomes undervalued. While the rest of the NFL has been avoiding running backs like the plague, the Browns have been happy to swoop in and buy the dip.
Right now, NFL teams are doing everything they can to develop high octane passing offenses. Defenses have been forced to follow suit, and have begun allocating their resources — both schematically and in terms of building out a roster — to shutting down the pass.
The tradeoff has been a decreased ability to stop the run. Cleveland has been happy to capitalize on this trend, as the Browns have made running the football the focal point of their team’s offensive identity.
But why two running backs? Wouldn’t simply having Nick Chubb running behind a punishing offensive line be enough to establish a dominant ground game?
In all likelihood, yes, but not to the extent we’re seeing today.
Chubb is a dominant force with the ball in his hands, but having Hunt alongside him has helped Cleveland run the ball at an extremely efficient clip. The Browns are running the ball at the third-highest rate in the league, but the high volume hasn’t hurt their efficiency as they’re still leading the league in yards per rush attempt.
When you look at the two backs individually, they’re both near the top of the league in numerous efficiency metrics.
Oftentimes a running back’s performance is a product of their offensive line. However, yards after contact is one way to measure how well a back is performing while somewhat taking offensive line play out of the equation. If you look at yards after contact on a per touch basis, Chubb and Hunt rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in that category — only trailing Jonathan Taylor.
Because Chubb and Hunt are able to feed off of one another, Cleveland has been able to reduce their individual workloads which has in turn led to improved individual performances.
Load management is a trend that’s becoming increasingly popular in the NBA, but it’s starting to look like the Browns (along with a few other franchises) are trying to bring that concept to the NFL as well.
Hunt’s role on this team is to be the second running back.
Cleveland isn’t developing some hyper-modern rushing attack that features both of their top backs on the field at the same time. They only have two backs on the field for 9% of their snaps, and more often than not this second back is the team’s fullback, Andy Janovich.
Many players with the talent level of Hunt would scoff at the idea of being second on the team’s depth chart, but in Cleveland, being number two means you’re still very much an important part of the offense.
Chubb and Hunt play the game rather differently from a stylistic perspective.
Chubb’s game is based on immense power, incredible vision, and explosive short-area quickness.
Hunt on the other hand possesses a game built around tremendous agility, ankle-breaking jump cuts, and some involvement in the passing game.
What they both have in common though is an incredible ability to do what Cleveland wants to do best — run the football between the tackles.
There may be minor tweaks to the play calls that get dialed in when one’s on the field compared to the other, but overall the offensive philosophy doesn’t change based on which back is on the field. A heavy investment in a high-quality second back has allowed them to do exactly that, and Hunt’s presence means their offense doesn’t miss a beat when Chubb heads to the sidelines.
Despite Hunt being out these past two weeks due to injury, Chubb hasn’t exceeded a 57% snap share in a single game this season. Third-stringer D’Ernest Johnson has stepped up admirably in Hunt’s absence, and his presence has allowed Cleveland to continue implementing their split-backfield approach even with Hunt on the sidelines.
Decreasing the wear and tear on the running back position has been a clear point of emphasis in Cleveland, and the numbers are indicating this has been a successful strategy. The split workload leads to fresh legs for each of the backs, and it means the team doesn’t go into a tailspin when one of the two needs to rest up in the event of an injury.
Having two backs heavily involved in the offense each week has allowed the Browns to develop a ground attack that’s re-writing the book on NFL analytics.
Since analytics started becoming prominent in the NFL, the phrases “efficient football” and “running game” haven’t exactly been synonymous. What we’ve seen in Cleveland since Berry took over has been a beautiful marriage of two previously clashing philosophies.
Good front offices and coaching staffs find ways to identify undervalued positions and players and extract value out of them.
Berry didn’t join the Browns and claim they needed to find exceptional running backs. Instead, he searched for value and the running back position was where he found it.
At a certain point, teams can’t simply follow trends if they want to gain an edge in a league as competitive as the NFL. With the rest of the league gushing over quarterbacks and the passing game, the Browns have gone against the grain and built a ground attack that the rest of the league isn’t equipped to stop.
What Berry has done in his short stint with the Browns has been nothing short of impressive. He’s slowly but surely removing the stench that’s associated with the Cleveland Browns, and he’s built a foundation for this football team that has them well equipped to start winning a lot of football games.
Every NFL team has one common goal in mind, and that’s to win the Super Bowl and hoist the Lombardi trophy. Only time will tell if the Browns have put themselves in a position to reach that lofty goal, but with Berry at the top of the organization, Cleveland has to be feeling pretty good about the direction their franchise is headed.
