How NFL Teams Maximize Draft Pick Value
By now we all know running back is a devalued position. Consensus tells us that spending a first-round pick on the position would be foolish, and instead those premium assets should be spent on more valuable positions — most notably quarterback.
But, how exactly do we know which positions are more valuable?
There are numerous ways to evaluate this — film study, quantitative analysis, etc. — but the simplest way is to look at the money. Teams ultimately pay players the value they believe they’re worth, and position plays a huge role here. Even a middling quarterback will earn substantially more than the best and highest paid running back (or safety, tight end, etc…).
While it’s no secret that quarterbacks are more valuable than running backs, what remains less clear is how to value every other position. Edge rusher and left tackle have historically been valued highly, while receivers and corners have been in extremely high demand these past few seasons.
To help us aggregate positional value in a simple manner, we can look at the cost of the franchise tag:
While the franchise tag isn’t a perfect 1:1 comparison of market value by position, it does serve as a useful proxy for the sake of this analysis.
Franchise tag numbers are generated by combining the average value of the five highest paid players at a position over the past five years. So simply put, if you want a star at one of these positions, the franchise tag serves as a floor for what they’re worth on the open market.
Going back to the graph above, a few things jump out when comparing the different positions. First and foremost, the gap between quarterback and the field is substantial. It’s easy to say quarterbacks are the most valuable position in the NFL, but looking at the numbers helps us visualize just how wide that gap really is.
While the gap between quarterback and the field is substantial, the positional breakdown of franchise tag value ultimately groups positions into three tiers. Quarterbacks are in a tier of their own, and after them there’s another high value tier that includes LB (this is really Edge) DE, DT, OL, WR, and CB. Then at the bottom we uncover a lower tier that includes S, TE, and RB. The difference between these tiers creates opportunity for teams to do some number-crunching in attempts to gain an edge. For teams that use these numbers to drive their decisions, they’ve discovered that “premium positions” (the tier one and two positions) exist in the NFL. To maximize the value of their draft picks, teams have invested heavily in these positions.
Unlike players on the open market, the cost associated with a draft pick doesn’t account for position. When a player is on their rookie contract, the amount of money they’re paid is fixed based on how highly they were drafted. Regardless of position, the first overall pick is going to make more than the second, who will make more than the third, who will… you get the point. Because of this, teams can gain more value by hitting on draft pick at premium positions.
Adding the cost associated with a few first round picks to our chart above helps us visualize this:
So how can teams gain an edge by using this data?
Let’s use the Atlanta Falcons — a team who’s been rumored to have interest in Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) at the top of the draft — as an example. The Falcons hold the 8th overall pick, and we know that this pick is going to cost $4.3M against the cap this year. If Atlanta drafts Robinson and he turns into the superstar many think he will, they’d still be getting a bargain at running back relative to market value. Having Robinson on the books for $4.3M number means that — if we use the franchise tag as our proxy here — they’d be saving $5.8M against the salary cap.
Sounds great… right?
Let’s look at another option before we come jump to any conclusions.
The Falcons need help in more than one area, and pick 8 is a great spot for them to draft a premium position as well. Let’s say instead of drafting Robinson, they select Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech). Wilson would make that same $4.3M that Robinson would make, but based on the position he plays, the cap savings associated with drafting him would be much greater. By drafting a more valuable position, Atlanta could save $15.4M relative to what it’d cost to sign an impact DE on the open market. That’s nearly $10M of additional cap savings compared to the savings they’d get by drafting Robinson.
These surplus savings are where draft picks really start to really pay dividends. If Atlanta wanted to upgrade the running back position, they could easily do so without drafting one. Instead of drafting Robinson, they could select a more highly valued position at №8, and then use the $10M they saved to pay a running back on the open market. This is why you frequently see positions with higher cap hits selected near the top of the draft. If you hit on one of these players, the savings you receive relative to market value is substantial.
While all of this may make sense in a vacuum, at a certain point talent has to win out, right?
No matter what a team’s philosophy is — analytically driven or not — there comes a point where it makes sense to draft a de-valued position. Is Bijan Robinson more valuable than the best cornerback in the draft?
What about the 15th best corner?
Drawing this line in the sand is no easy task, and this is where actual draft grades — which are a mix of film study, quantitative analysis, interviews, and more — come into play. How teams use and create their draft grades varies, but in a nutshell, most teams use them to measure the expected hit rate of a given player. Things start to get a little more complicated when you think Bijan Robinson has a 90% chance of being a star, while the best premium position player left on your board only has a 50% chance of reaching that mark. The crazy part is, even in this scenario, the premium position with a lower hit rate can still be perceived as more valuable by NFL teams.
Using the same example as above, if we say Robinson hypothetically has a 90% chance at success, we can presume he’s worth 90% of the value of a running back on the open market. So instead of using the $10.1M number referenced earlier, we’d take 90% of it and determine Robinson’s true value is $9.1M.
Meanwhile, if the Falcons hypothetically determined Wilson had a 50% chance of reaching stardom, those odds would still make him more valuable than Robinson. 50% of the DE franchise tag value is $9.6M, which just slightly edges out the perceived value of Robinson, even though the less valued position has a higher likelihood of finding success.
No matter what position a team is drafting for, they’re hoping to land a stud. It may seem insane that a player with a 40% lower chance of success is perceived to be more valuable in the NFL, but this is how many teams are approaching player evaluations these days. Nowadays, the draft evaluation process is about much more than just “is this guy good?” Instead, teams are doing whatever they can to extract the most value out of their picks, and the finances associated with picks and certain positions play a huge rule.
Of course it’s not every team in the league that’s going to follow this value-based approach to drafting. Teams who rely heavily on analytics will do whatever they can to extract value at all costs. Meanwhile, other teams couldn’t care less about what the data says and will simply try to stack talent regardless of position.
Whatever your favorite team ultimately does on draft night can provide a peek behind the curtain that shows how they define value in today’s NFL. If you find yourself wondering “why didn’t my team draft Bijan Robinson, he’s clearly the best player in the draft?” now you know why they may have made that decision. Let’s not forget though… whatever the decision ultimately is on draft night, only time will tell us whether or not it’s the correct one.
