Can the Dolphins’ D Carry Them to a Playoff Birth?
There may not be a team in the NFL playing better defense than the Miami Dolphins right now.
The start of the season was rough for Miami. After winning their opener against the Patriots in week one, they dropped seven straight games and quickly found themselves at the bottom of the NFL barrel.
This abysmal start raised questions outside the Dolphins’ locker room, but it appears no one on the inside was shook. Miami hasn’t lost a game since week nine, and their defense has morphed into an elite unit that has them firmly in the hunt for an AFC Wild Card spot.
During the first 8 weeks of the season, Miami’s defense gave up 29.1 points per game, and they ranked 21st in defensive success rate.
From week 9 onward, they rank 1st in success rate and have held their opponents to an average of just 11.0 points.
It’s clear something’s changed in Miami, but what is it that’s fueling this newfound dominance on defense?
After starting 1–7, it would have been easy for the Dolphins to mail it in and start looking towards 2022.
A week 9 win over the hapless Texans snapped Miami’s losing streak and improved their record to 2–7, but a matchup with Lamar Jackson and the AFC-leading Ravens provided an entirely different challenge in week 10. With their backs against the wall and their season seemingly on the line, Miami started playing as if they had nothing to lose.
Just one week after holding the Texans’ offense to 9 measly points, the Dolphins’ D stymied Jackson and the Ravens in a game where Baltimore could only put 10 points on the scoreboard.
Holding a Lamar Jackson-led offense to just 10 points is a seriously impressive feat, so how’d the Dolphins do it?
They lined up like this on just about every single third down call of the night:
This look came on a 3rd and 9 during the Ravens’ first drive of the game.
Eight Dolphins defenders are lined up near the line of scrimmage ready to attack, but the Ravens only have seven guys available to block. Most importantly, there’s almost zero indication towards which of these eight guys are ultimately going to blitz.
Before pressing play on the clip below, try to guess for yourself which of the Dolphins defenders are going to blitz:
Did you guess correctly?
Probably not, and this is the exact frustration Jackson (or any quarterback for that matter) has to deal with when playing the Dolphins.
Only five rushers end up blitzing here, but the madness along the line of scrimmage makes it nearly impossible to guess who‘s coming before the ball is snapped.
The offensive line has to prioritize preventing free rushers up the middle, but because Miami drops a few of those defenders into coverage, they’re able to create a pseudo-numbers advantage. By forcing the Ravens to account for space where rushers could be coming from, the Dolphins were able to scheme up a free path to the quarterback off the left edge:
The impact this formation has on an offense is the defensive equivalent of a read-option or RPO. By forcing an offense to account for something that’s not actually there, the defense can create carnage in the backfield.
The downside of this style of defense is you’re dropping unorthodox players into coverage. On this particular play, we see a defensive end, an outside linebacker, and a defensive tackle drop back — none of whom specialize in coverage.
When these types of players drop back and serve as the front line of defense in coverage, it puts serious pressure on the guys on the back end.
By looking at this same play from a different camera angle, we can see just how much accountability the Dolphins secondary has when they line up like this:
All those bodies along the line of scrimmage allow Miami to get creative schematically up front, but it leaves little room for disguise on the back end. While the Ravens have no idea what to expect along the line of scrimmage, it’s pretty obvious what the assignments are for the defenders’ on the back end — mano-a-mano coverage.
The lack of support on the backend is what makes this coverage so risky, and it’s exactly why other teams don’t run this look very often. If one of these three defenders get beat deep, it could mean a quick six points for the offense.
Luckily for the Dolphins, they have some studs in the secondary who are good enough in one on one coverage to mitigate some of that risk. Headlined by cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, Miami has a secondary that’s good enough to make this aggressive formation a staple of their scheme rather than a gimmick they go to occassionally. In this game against the Ravens, the Dolphins lined up in a formation like this 40 times:
40 times.
This formation isn’t unique to the Dolphins. Many other teams run something similar to try and confuse opposing quarterbacks, but for most teams this is just a curveball they throw occasionally throughout the game. For Miami— a team who at one point was staring at a 1–7 record and seemingly had nothing to lose — it’s become their bread and butter.
Even with studs like Howard and Jones manning Miami’s top two cornerback positions, this defensive approach still carries a lot of risk.
The Dolphins aren’t lining up like this on every single snap, but their poor record gave them the green light to run it more often than most. With their season seemingly headed for the toilet, they figured why not dial up the pressure, take on some additional risk, and swing for the fences.
Throughout their win streak, the Dolphins have embraced chaos and their “no risk it no biscuit” mentality has helped fuel an impressive winning streak.
The Dolphins are blitzing at the second highest rate in the league, and they’re comfortable with the potential consequences of this tactic. From week 9 onward, they’re averaging a whopping 3.8 sacks per game compared to just 1.5 over the first 8 weeks. Their defensive identity has evolved over the course of this win streak, and this group is turning into a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.
In a league where offenses are typically the ones dictating how a play will unfold, Miami’s defense has emerged as a rare tone-setter on the other side of the ball. When they line up in these cover zero looks, pressure starts to become the expectation.
Watch this play on 3rd and 10 against the Giants in week 12 for an example of how the illusion of pressure forces a key 3rd down stop:
The Dolphins only rush three defenders here, but the look they give pre-snap has Mike Glennon anticipating pressure before the ball’s even snapped.
Despite needing ten yards to pick up the first down, the mere threat of a blitz baits Glennon into getting the ball out of his hands early and making a throw short of the line to gain. With only three Miami defenders rushing, the defense has numerous players available in coverage to prevent New York from reaching the first down marker.
When a quarterback watches film to prepare for this Dolphins defense, they start to associate these pre-snap looks with immediate pressure. After experiencing that pressure first hand for a few drives, a quarterback’s internal clock starts to speed up and they feel the need to get rid of the ball quickly regardless of what’s actually going on in front of them.
Whether they’re blitzing or not, this Dolphins defense finds a way to put pressure on an opposing quarterback. Their aggressive nature is having an intangible affect on opposing offenses, and their brand of football has become synonymous with pressure and chaos in recent weeks.
While Miami’s defense has been impressive in the early second half of the season, it’s important to note their level of competition hasn’t been anything stellar. Over the course of their win streak, their opponents records are a combined 22–43. It’s fair to wonder whether or not this level of play will be sustainable as better opponents start to pop up on the schedule.
The film here has me believing this defense can hang with just about anyone, and I know for sure this Dolphins team won’t back down when a tougher challenge presents itself.
It’s more than just a scheme that’s driving this turnaround, it’s been an overall shift in mindset. Miami appears to have embraced an underdog mentality throughout this win streak, and they’re playing with a level of confidence and aggression that borders on recklessness.
The Dolphins have another soft matchup this weekend with the Jets coming to town where they should be able to emerge victorious, extend their win streak to six, and gain even more ground in the AFC playoff race.
Following the matchup with the Jets, Miami rounds out the season with two winnable games against the Saints and the Titans before their division-rival Patriots come to town for the season finale. There’s a very real chance this week 18 matchup determines whether or not Miami ultimately makes the playoffs, and in all likelihood they’ll be entering that game as a home underdog.
With their backs potentially against the wall one last time to finish out the 2021 regular season, you already know this Dolphins defense won’t be holding anything back.
