The NFL regular season has come to its conclusion, and that can only mean two things:
- I don’t have to watch *insert disappointing quarterback here* take another snap for the miserable Eagles offense until September
- Now that only the cream of the crop (and the Washington Football Team) remain standing, it’s time to get excited for some playoff football!
For the first time in NFL history 14 teams will have their crack at the Super Bowl title due to the expanded playoff format. Round 1 provides us with some fun pairings that should be viewed as must watch TV, and each game possesses a few key matchups that will ultimately determine the outcome. In this article I’ll highlight for you what these deciding factors will be as well as make a prediction on the final score.
Saturday Games (1/9)
1:05 EST: #7. Colts @ #2. Bills
The Bills have been on an absolute tear in the latter half of the season and their offense is operating like one of the best in the league. They’re getting hot at the right time as evidenced by their 47 (!) points per game average in their last three outings. They’re starting to look like legitimate title contenders, but in order to eventually have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi trophy they’ll first need to go through the Colts. When looking at a 2 vs 7 matchup one can assume the 2 seed has a massive advantage, but the Colts won 11 games this year for a reason and certainly won’t be a cakewalk.
Indy isn’t the flashiest team in the league, but they may be one of the most well balanced from top to bottom. They possess a top 8 defense and an offense that’s capable of beating teams with either their well balanced passing game or their punishing rushing attack. In this matchup with the Bills, the key for the Colts will likely be keeping Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible by running the ball, controlling the clock, and dictating the tempo of the game. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has been on an absolute rampage lately as he’s found the end zone 7 times in his last 4 games. He’ll need his impressive play to continue for the Colts to have a chance at keeping up with the high powered Buffalo offense, otherwise things could get out of hand quickly as the Colts aren’t a team built to win in shootouts. Indianapolis currently has the 2nd best turnover margin in the league (+10), and if their run game and well balanced offense can keep things close a few extra possessions due to turnovers may be enough to claim victory.
Although Indy has a team capable of keeping this one close, I think the Buffalo offense will prove too tough of a task and the Bills will ultimately emerge victorious. Josh Allen has taken his game to another level this season, and it’ll be exciting to see if he can maintain that success when the stakes are higher in the postseason.
Score Prediction: Buffalo 30 Indianapolis 26
4:40 EST: #6. Rams @ #3. Seahawks
The first of two divisional matchups is destined to be a good one. Whenever the Rams and Seahawks face off it always seems to be an unpredictable game that comes down to the wire. It’s just as likely this game winds up with a score of 10–9 as it is 41–38. These two teams split their regular season matchups, but a key difference in this one may be who’s lining up under center for the Rams. We already know Russell Wilson will be ready to take on the challenging Rams defense, but on the other side we still don’t know if we’ll see Jared Goff, who’s currently battling a thumb injury, or rookie John Wolford get the start for the Rams. An injured Goff seems to be the lesser of two evils, but either way it spells bad news for the Rams offense.
For most of the year Seattle’s defense has been pretty poor, but around the midseason mark they started turning things around and are looking like at minimum a league average unit. Although their pass defense has really struggled (31st ranked) in 2020, they’ve actually been one of the leagues best defenses when it comes to stopping the run (5th). Luckily for Seattle, the Rams offense is built around establishing the run and then giving defenses fits in the play action game. Even though they’ll be facing a poor pass defense, the Rams will likely struggle to move the ball through the air given their quarterback situation. On the season Jared Goff has the 23rd best quarterback rating (90.0), and it’s hard to envision him rising to the occasion with an injured throwing hand, and unfortunately for the Rams plan B doesn’t look much better as Wolford had a measly 64.7 rating in his lone start against Arizona.
Winning a playoff game is no easy task regardless of situation, but doing so with a limitation at the game’s most important position is going to be a tall order for the Rams. This game is going to come down to the Rams run game stepping up and doing enough to mask what will likely be uninspiring quarterback play. If the Seattle defense can maintain their improved play and shut down the Rams rushing attack they should emerge victorious. Luckily for Rams fans Sean McVay is one of the few coaches capable of scheming up greatness regardless of who’s taking snaps under center. A genius game plan paired with an elite defense could be enough to send L.A. on to round two, but they’ll certainly have their work cut out for them in this one.
Score Prediction: Los Angeles 16 Seattle 20
8:15 EST: #5. Buccaneers @ #4. Football Team
The reward for winning the lackluster NFC East this year has the Football Team scheduled for a round one matchup with the red-hot Buccaneers. A matchup with Tom Brady in the playoffs is something no team wants to see, and recent weeks may be indicating Brady’s getting more and more comfortable with his new environment in Tampa Bay. Many expect this game to be a blowout in favor of Tampa Bay, but no one in the Washington locker room is expecting that outcome. Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians knows the Football Team can pose a serious threat, and when asked about the matchup he said the following:
“It’s a different team when Alex [Smith] is playing and we know that. We’re playing that 4–1 team, not that 7–9 team”
Regardless of who’s under center Washington’s offense has been uninspiring for most of the year, but their defense has been elite and proved to be a unit capable of taking over games. Headlined by #2 overall pick Chase Young, the Washington front 7 has made life miserable on opposing quarterbacks all year long as they’ve held opposing offenses to just 20.8 points per game — good for 4th best in the league. It’s all well and good for Washington when they’re playing NFC East competition, but playoff Tom Brady is a different beast. Brady has the Bucs offense generating the 3rd most points per game (30.8) and has yet to be held under 20 points all season long. Meanwhile Washington and their revolving door of quarterbacks are only averaging 20.9 points per game and Tampa Bay has a top 10 defense of their own. It’s going to be an uphill battle for the Football Team, but we’ve seen Tom Brady get knocked out of the playoffs in the past and it usually came when teams are able to put pressure on the future Hall of Famer. Washington’s only hope in this one is if they can follow that formula, get a dominant performance out of their defense, and find a way to generate some points on that side of the ball.
At the end of the day anything can happen in any given game, but betting against Tom Brady in the playoffs against a team with 7 wins seems to be a bit foolish. I think Brady’s more than capable of putting up points against an elite defense, and I don’t think the same can be said of Alex Smith and Washington’s offense.
Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 23 Football Team 10
Sunday Games (1/10)
1:05 EST: #5. Ravens @ #4. Titans
Did somebody say revenge game?! Following their league best 14–2 campaign in 2019, the Ravens were stunned in last year’s postseason when the 6 seeded Titans handed them a shocking upset. You better believe Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens offense are going to remember getting thwarted by the Titans defense last year in a game where their #1 ranked offense was held to just 12 points — their lowest total of the season.
Although the NFL has become more pass heavy in recent years, this matchup features the leagues two top ranked rushing teams. What’s particularly interesting about these two offenses is that although they both approach the game with a run centric philosophy, they do so in completely different ways. The Titans feature more of an old school, smash-mouth style game that leans solely on one 250 pound monster of a man in Derrick Henry. In 2020 Henry became just the 8th player to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season as he accounted for over 75% of Tennessee’s rushing yards. The running threat Henry provides has made life easy on Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee play action passing game as they’ve dismantled opposing defenses that chose to sell out to stop the run.
Meanwhile Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens rushing offense with 1,005 yards, but only accounts for 32.7% of the teams yardage. While Henry’s presence opens up the passing game for Tennessee, Jackson’s electric rushing ability amplifies the Baltimore running game and allows the team to hit home runs on the ground. By using Jackson’s legs to open up lanes for the running backs, Baltimore has been able to generate big plays on the ground no matter who’s carrying the ball. 3 of the top 5 leading rushers in explosive runs (runs over 20+ yards) on the season will be playing for the Ravens on Sunday — J.K. Dobbins (8), Gus Edwards (8), and Jackson himself (10).
While both offenses are among the leagues best as they each average right around 30 points a game, the biggest difference between these two squads is their defense. There’s over a touchdown difference in points per game allowed between the Ravens 2nd ranked defense (18.9) and the Titans 24th ranked unit (27.4). We’ve all heard it before, defense wins championships, and I think with the intensity cranked up a notch in the playoffs defense will be what ultimately gives Baltimore the edge in this one. They’ve had issues slowing down Henry and the Titans in their recent matchups, but I’m buying the revenge game narrative and I think they’ll step up and make a few game changing plays that can swing the outcome of the game.
Score Prediction: Baltimore 30 Tennessee 28
4:40 EST: #7. Bears @ #2. Saints
Mitch Trubiski is in the playoffs. That is all.
Score Prediction: Chicago 6 Saints 38
Just kidding about the prediction, but believe it or not I’m serious about Trubiski being in the playoffs. What’s even crazier is the way he’s played in recent weeks makes it feel like he belongs there. Since returning to the starting lineup in week 12, Trubiksi has this Bears offense averaging over 30 points per game, and the offense may be getting hot at the right time. However in this matchup they’ll will have their work cut out for them against New Orleans and their 4th ranked defense.
Although Trubiski has played well in recent weeks, it’s hard to envision him stepping up enough in this game to outduel Drew Brees (and maybe a dash of Taysom Hill). Doing a top to bottom comparison, I think the Saints come out ahead in just about every category:
- Quarterback play
- Supporting cast on offense
- Defense (this one’s close)
- Coaching
- Playoff experience
- Home field advantage
In order for Chicago to emerge victorious in this one they’ll need Trubiski to keep up his impressive play and the Bears defense will need to make Drew Brees look like the 41 year old he is. The Saints have had bad luck in recent playoffs, but I think they come into this matchup locked in and deliver against an outmatched Bears team.
Score Prediction: Chicago 17 New Orleans 27
8:15 EST: #6. Browns @ #3. Steelers
Another divisional matchup destined for excitement. Battles within the AFC North tend to be slug fests that are deemed must watch TV and this game should be no exception. Following Cleveland’s week 17 win over the Steelers (JV team?) the Browns have made the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
These two teams feature drastically different play styles and it’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top in this one. In my eyes the deciding factor here will come down to strength against strength — the Cleveland rushing game vs the dominant Pittsburgh defense. All season long the Browns have kept their formula consistent by running the ball with the two-headed monster that is Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt that has been a nightmare for opposing defenses to stop. They run the ball at the 4th highest rate in the league (48.4% of plays) and have accumulated the third most yards on the ground as a result (2,374). Head coach Kevin Stefanski has implemented a system that has this offense humming, but traveling to Pittsburgh in a playoff environment against this ferocious Steelers Defense is no easy task. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed the third fewest yards per game (305.8) and points per game (19.5), while being second in the league in takeaways.
When these teams matched up at full strength in Week 5, Pittsburgh claimed a statement win by a score of 38–7 in a game where Cleveland simply could not find a way to move the ball on offense as they were held to just 220 total yards. Since their first matchup, these two teams have trended in opposite directions — Cleveland has looked better and better while the Steelers have sputtered on offense and lost some key contributors due to injury on defense. I expect the Pittsburgh Defense to be dominant once again in this one, but Cleveland should put up a better fight as they show the rest of the NFL they belong in the postseason.
Score Prediction: Cleveland 16 Pittsburgh 24
